A planet on the brink: Will we see a 7°C rise in temperature?
Even if we limit greenhouse gas emissions, it's possible that we still won't stop global warming, and the atmosphere will warm by more than 3°C. The latest climate models indicate that moderate emissions can also increase global temperature, rising by even 7°C.
Scientists have created a climate model to study potential scenarios for the next 1,000 years. The research results indicate that even with moderate greenhouse gas emissions, there is a 10 percent risk that Earth's temperature will rise by 7°C over the next 200 years.
Can we stop climate change?
Even if we reduced emissions to zero, the current models suggest a 10-percent risk that the atmosphere would still warm by more than 3°C. The rise in global temperature involves a gradual increase in the average temperature on the planet, which drives changes in ecosystems. The phenomenon brings a range of consequences that all Earth's inhabitants will feel. Higher temperatures lead, among other things, to more intense and extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, hurricanes, and heat waves.
People around the world are already feeling the consequences of the climate catastrophe. Last year, powerful storms and tornadoes in the USA, a massive flood in Valencia, and the tragically impactful Typhoon Yagi. The situation is difficult globally, including in our country, which does not escape the consequences of rising temperatures. Just recall the September floods.
A global temperature rise of 3°C would significantly impact the climate in various parts of the world. We could expect warmer summers, more frequent heatwaves, and milder winters with fewer cold days in Warsaw. Rome would struggle with hot summers, where temperatures would exceed 40°C, along with intense droughts and fires. Meanwhile, New York would experience extreme summer heat, increased hurricane intensity, and rising sea levels, potentially impacting coastal areas.
A rise of 7 degrees Celsius involves changing the world as we know it
Mediterranean countries, already exposed to hot and dry summers, would face extreme heat and temperatures exceeding 50°C, posing a serious threat to human health and destabilising agriculture. In New York, a temperature rise of 7°C would lead to regular heatwaves, with temperatures reaching up to 45°C, and rising sea levels could result in massive flooding. Humanity would have to face severe social, health, and environmental problems.
Should we bid farewell to Venice or New York?
Higher global temperatures accelerate glacier melting, affecting sea and ocean levels. If the temperature increases by 3 degrees Celsius, it is estimated that sea levels could rise by about 0.6 to 1.2 metres. However, if the temperature increases by 7 degrees, it will lead to significant and catastrophic geographical changes, shoreline changes, and the submergence of entire cities and islands. Sea levels could then rise by 5 to 10 metres or more.
Changes in weather patterns, warmer ocean waters, and reduced albedo, meaning the ice's ability to reflect sunlight, affect the climate worldwide and the functioning of ecosystems. The temperature increase impacts our planet and presents humanity with significant challenges related to the need to adapt to new conditions.
Climate feedback loop
Aerosol emissions that counteract the greenhouse effect create uncertainty about climate sensitivity. Ganopolski's model also considers long-term feedback effects, such as the release of CO2 and methane from permafrost and wetlands. As the New Scientist portal reported, previous models didn't consider both of these factors, which could significantly impact forecasts.
Although the 23rd century seems distant to us, it will be an everyday reality associated with living in an era of climate catastrophe for future generations. According to scientists, reducing emissions may help avoid a temperature rise of 3°C, but it is already too late to keep it below 2°C.
