AfD's electoral surge: A challenge to Germany's political stability
The AfD and Die Linke parties hold a blocking minority in the new Bundestag, which places the future government in a challenging situation, according to political scientist Julia Reuschenbach.
Reuschenbach highlights that the AfD has doubled its result compared to the 2021 elections, largely due to support in the western part of the country. Although in some constituencies in eastern Germany the populists gained nearly 50 percent of the votes, the number of voters there is insufficient to impact the national result. The political scientist notes the increase in support for the AfD in Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, and southern Hesse.
Reasons for AfD's popularity
Analysing the reasons for AfD's popularity, Reuschenbach cites workers' fears of job losses and competition from immigrants. Even though Germany's economy is in good shape and "deindustrialisation" is considered an unsubstantial term, the AfD managed to attract nearly 2 million new voters. In the parliamentary elections, the party secured 20.8 percent of the votes, becoming the second largest political force in the country.
The democratic centre parties have lost a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag, which means the AfD and Die Linke can block any attempts to amend the constitution. Reuschenbach predicts that forming a coalition government will be difficult, given the significant differences in migration, social, and economic policy between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats.
Reuschenbach notes that the formation of a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition is not a certainty. The coalition agreement draft will need to be approved by SPD members, and the result of the vote will depend on whether negotiators can secure support for social proposals, such as raising the minimum wage to 15 EUR (12,5 GBP) per hour. If SPD Chairman Lars Klingbeil joins the government, he might take on the role of Vice Chancellor and Minister of Foreign Affairs.
