Asteroid YR4: Monitoring the minimal threat and simulation insights
Scientists are closely monitoring asteroid YR4. Although the threat of it hitting Earth is minimal, researchers prefer to err on the side of caution. A simulation has even been created to illustrate the effects of a cosmic catastrophe.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on 27 December 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile. The object measures between 40 and 100 metres long. Currently, the rock is moving away from Earth at a speed of approximately 13 kilometres per second. However, according to scientists' estimates, there is a possibility that YR4 might collide with Earth. The potential collision could occur in one of six instances between 2032 and 2071, when the object will pass near our planet. Fortunately, the likelihood of impact in 2032 is only 1.2 percent. Despite this, procedures related to asteroid monitoring have been initiated.
Will YR4 hit Earth? A simulation has been created, here are the consequences of the catastrophe
Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), stated that while there is a 99 percent chance the asteroid will miss Earth, it still deserves attention.
However, it's worth understanding what a possible collision would mean for Earth. Álvaro Gracia Montoyi from MetaBallStudios created a simulation of the impact effects of YR4 hitting our planet. It demonstrates that if the asteroid were to strike a city, it would be obliterated. However, this is a rather improbable scenario since urban areas comprise a small portion of the Earth's surface. It is estimated that even if a collision were to happen, the asteroid would likely impact a region of the planet stretching from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa.
There are, however, ways to react should the worst-case scenario develop. One such method is deflection, which involves altering the asteroid's trajectory using a rocket or probe. Such a NASA mission named the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) in 2022 was successful when a spacecraft was intentionally crashed into the asteroid Dimorphos. Therefore, we are not entirely defenceless against such threats.
