Betting frenzy over papal successor as conclave nears
Following the death of Pope Francis, betting exchanges such as Polymarket and Kalshi are attracting millions in bets on his successor. According to the latest statistics, cardinals from Italy, the Philippines, and Ghana are seen as having the best chance of assuming the Papal throne.
The death of Pope Francis on 21 April prompted not only a global reaction amongst the faithful but also heightened activity in the betting markets.
Favourites on the betting exchanges
The Kalshi platform swiftly started accepting bets on the new Pope, with other services quickly following suit.
On the cryptocurrency platform Polymarket, the value of bets has already exceeded 12 million USD (9 million pounds), while on Kalshi, it's approximately 4 million USD (3 million pounds). Although betting on the Papal selection is illegal in many countries, including Italy and the USA, individuals worldwide are participating in these bets.
Currently, the main favourite for the Papal throne is Cardinal Pietro Parolin from Italy, with bookmakers giving him a 23 percent chance of winning.
In second place is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines (19 percent). A surprise candidate is Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana, whose odds have increased from 7 to 17 percent.
The history of betting on the choice of Pope dates back to the 16th century when such markets flourished in Rome.
Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams from Nottingham Business School told the "Wall Street Journal" that current betting odds reflect more the general perceptions and media attention than actual knowledge. He noted that Papal elections differ from political ones as there are no polls or debates, which makes predictions challenging.
The conclave approaches. A logistical problem arises
The cardinals are set to gather for the conclave this coming Wednesday, 7 May, in the afternoon to elect a new Bishop of Rome. This time, a record number of cardinals—133 in total—are expected to participate.
This presents logistical challenges for the Vatican. The Domus Sanctae Marthae, the traditional residence for electors, will not accommodate all the participants, necessitating additional accommodation arrangements.
Preparations are also underway in the Sistine Chapel, involving dozens of specialists, including carpenters, locksmiths, decorators, florists, electricians, and plumbers.
