Black Sea tensions: Elusive ceasefire amid conflicting goals

Andriy Klymenko, an analyst from the Ukrainian Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies, stresses that Ukraine and Russia have different expectations regarding the ceasefire in the Black Sea. This is evident in the ongoing negotiations.

When Ukraine speaks of a ceasefire at sea, it expects its civilian ports and ships not to be attacked by Russia. Conversely, for Russia, a ceasefire means that Ukraine will not target its warships because "soon we (Russians) will not have any ships," and that Russia will again control all vessels heading to the Ukrainian port in Odesa — the analyst stated in an interview with the Polish Press Agency.

Talks are underway in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, on a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. Representatives from the U.S. are holding separate meetings with delegations from Kyiv and Moscow. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has noted that Russia seeks the restoration of the Black Sea Initiative, which facilitated the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea.

The Black Sea Initiative, agreed upon in July 2022, allowed for the export of nearly 33 million metric tonnes of Ukrainian grain despite the ongoing war. Russia withdrew from it after a year, claiming difficulties in its own food and fertiliser exports.

However, no one expelled Russia from the Black Sea Initiative; it withdrew on its own because it couldn't hinder its implementation — Klymenko noted.

Despite Russia's withdrawal, Ukraine continues to transport grain, using drones and other means to deter Russian ships. Since the outset of the Russian invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has conducted 42 successful attacks on Russian warships, destroying 22 of them.

In the three years of the ongoing war, Ukraine has never attacked civilian ships departing Russian ports or Russian civilian ports, and there are far more of them than Ukrainian ones — the expert said.

The Russian Federation has damaged 33 civilian ships from various countries and attacked Ukrainian civilian ports for 144 days in 2024. In the Odesa region, there were 71 Iskander ballistic missile attacks, causing significant damage to civilian ports.

Klymenko stresses that the return of the Black Sea Fleet to the Black Sea would counteract Ukraine's victory in this region. Such a possibility raises concerns in Black Sea countries like Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey.

The positions of the two sides completely exclude each other here — Klymenko summarizes.