China's strategic defiance reshapes global trade dynamics
— The Trump administration provides China with ammunition to build an alternative trade order, — assesses Benjamin Barton, a political scientist and China foreign policy expert from the University of Nottingham Malaysia, in an interview with PAP. In his opinion, "the Chinese will resist as long as possible."
Barton suggested that China's resistance might have surprised the administration of US President Donald Trump, which expected China to "comply," similar to other countries. However, the firm stance of the PRC is not merely a reaction, but part of a broader strategy aimed at reducing dependence on the USA, according to the expert.
— China is trying, through various means, to think about "Made in China 2025," various political economy strategies to become a more self-sufficient country and less dependent on the United States, — the analyst noted.
He added that Beijing is trying to develop an alternative trade order, especially in cooperation with the so-called Global South, and promote currencies other than the US dollar.
— The US approach, which in the short term threatens its partners with tariffs, unintentionally provides China with ammunition to build an alternative trade order, — Barton assessed. — This really gives China many opportunities to convince others, especially in Asia, not to be so dependent on the USA, — he pointed out.
The imposition of high tariffs on some of the poorest countries in Southeast Asia is seen by Barton rather as a message from the USA to China, not a blow to these economies. In his view, this is an action by Washington aimed at "moving Chinese production" to these countries to circumvent previous sanctions imposed on the PRC.
Barton pointed out that "what Trump really wants above all is not much different from what we saw during Trump 1.0 (his previous presidential term, i.e., from 2017-2021)."
— It's about an agreement with China, forcing this country to buy more American-made products, — the expert emphasized, while adding that on the Chinese side, the situation is much more nuanced.
China, however, is "less about trade and more about legitimising leadership," Barton explained. — The Xi Jinping government, facing internal economic challenges, fears being perceived as weak. The United States, historically depicted as the "tyrant," adds further complications — the PAP interlocutor highlighted.
In the country, the Chinese government uses the trade war to strengthen national unity. — The crisis is always an opportunity, — the expert noted when asked about the message coming from the internet posts of Chinese MFA spokespersons, who quote the words of Mao Zedong from the Korean War era (1950-1953). The long-term leader of communist China then stated that his country is not afraid of provocation and explained that the government uses challenging situations to "test" loyalty to the party and its leader.
"Show of Beijing's strength"
The expert suggested that China will "resist as long as possible" before engaging in talks. Barton assessed this stance of Beijing as a show of strength against Washington.
— I think the Chinese will resist as long as possible before possibly, behind the scenes, opening up the prospect of talks. I believe that it is in no one's interest for this to last too long, — the analyst predicts.
Ultimately, as the PAP interlocutor summarised, trade relations between the USA and China are a complex game of economic interests, political manoeuvres, and nationalist sentiments. While an agreement may eventually be reached, tensions on key issues and strategic great power rivalry are likely to persist and shape the global economic landscape in the coming years.
Benjamin Barton is the head and associate professor in the School of Politics, History and International Relations (PHIR) at the University of Nottingham Malaysia in the state of Selangor, Malaysia.
