Empty ports reflect growing fears in Trump's trade showdown

"It's terrifying," said Alex Smith, a retired marine components specialist, in an interview with "The Seattle Times." The 80-year-old noted that since mid-April, significantly fewer ships have been docking in the port of this city. According to him, this serves as an "early warning system" about what truly awaits Americans in connection with the trade war between the United States and China.

"The Seattle Times" explains that a smaller number of ships arriving in the USA means fewer components for manufacturers and ultimately - fewer products on store shelves.

Analysts predict that the situation will deteriorate starting in mid-May, when US-Chinese tariffs are expected to impact the ports of Seattle and Tacoma with full force. A chain reaction could follow, affecting various sectors. Jeff Bellerud, COO of the Northwest Seaport Alliance, which manages maritime transport operations at both ports, warned that local lorry drivers are likely to suffer and will feel the consequences of these changes.

In the first half of April, the White House raised tariffs on goods from China to 145%. This includes both a 125% rate, the so-called reciprocal tariffs, and a 20% tariff imposed by President Trump at the beginning of this year for alleged fentanyl smuggling.

As a result, there has already been a decrease in the number of freight bookings and voyages to the USA, explains "Fortune."

Analysts have been warning for weeks about the potential consequences of the tariffs, and those concerns are now beginning to materialize, possibly setting the stage for a gradual disaster. The magazine points out that transporting goods from China to the United States takes several weeks by cargo ship.

Sean Stein from the US-China Business Council recently told NBC News that "in a few weeks, products will start disappearing." Empty shelves may resemble the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic when supply chains were disrupted, and new solutions had not yet been developed.

The American asset management company Apollo Global Management believes that the effects of American tariffs will be felt in stages.

• Beginning of May. Within two weeks, consumers will notice that fewer container ships are docking at ports.
• Mid-May. Demand for lorry transport will decrease, leading to empty shelves across the country.
• End of May to early June. The start of redundancies in transportation and retail as companies react to decreased sales.
• Mid-June. This will mark the onset of a recession - estimates Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo.

"Fortune" notes that this is an illustrative timeline that will vary depending on the imported product. The trade war is expected to impact shoe and clothing sales the fastest, as the majority of these goods come to the USA from China. The toy and school supplies market will also suffer.

The situation has become so serious that the directors of Amazon, Home Depot, and Walmart visited the White House last week to plead with President Trump and warn against the tariffs, which they fear could disrupt their operations.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent does not share these concerns. In his opinion, Americans "have several great retailers." Bessent assumes that they have placed pre-orders. "Fortune" notes that in February, there was an increase in imports at the largest American Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach. However, these stocks will eventually be depleted, and imports in May could drop by as much as 20% year-over-year.

Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, quoted by Fortune, observed that the data clearly show the trade war’s impact, with many shippers choosing to halt or even cancel their shipments.

Ray Dalio, billionaire and director of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater, recently warned about a recession in the USA.