EU‑Mercosur trade deal faces turning point amid Franco-Polish opposition

The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, remains optimistic about the agreement forged between the EU and South American nations. "The finish line of the EU-Mercosur agreement is in sight. Let’s work, let’s cross it. We have the chance to create a market of 700 million people," she wrote on Thursday on the X platform.

In the remainder of her post, von der Leyen highlighted that this is "the largest trade and investment partnership the world has ever seen," from which "both regions will benefit."

This concerns the free trade agreement between the EU and the Mercosur group—Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Uruguay—which has been under discussion for over 20 years. Although a political agreement was reached in 2019, it has yet to be signed. In Europe, it faces opposition from France and Poland. Farmers in both nations worry that the agreement would lead to an influx of cheap agricultural products from South America, which could sideline domestic goods by not meeting EU standards.

European Commission trade spokesperson, Olof Gill, acknowledged during a Thursday press briefing in Brussels that—apart from the head of the European Commission—Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič will also meet with leaders of the Mercosur countries in Montevideo. “I hope that this agreement, which I'm sure we will discuss at greater length today, could be concluded on very, very fair grounds,” the spokesperson stated.

The European Commission might suggest signing the trade aspect of the agreement solely at the EU level. For the agreement to gain acceptance, it must receive support from a qualified majority, meaning 15 out of the 27 member states, representing at least 65% of the EU's population. The EC could also propose a broader version of the agreement, the so-called mixed version, which—besides the trade element—would also encompass political declarations. National parliaments would need to provide their consent for this. However, it's rumoured in Brussels that the EC is hesitant about this solution.

The Élysée Palace announced on X shortly after the European Commission President's post that Paris would not agree to the current form of the agreement with Mercosur, and President Macron had already informed von der Leyen of this on Thursday. The issue is that even with potential backing from Poland and several other EU countries—given that Austria, Luxembourg, Greece, and the Netherlands are also likely to oppose the agreement—France does not have the necessary majority to block it.

Speculation in Brussels suggests that von der Leyen may be attempting to leverage the political crisis in France, which was the most vocal critic of the agreement, to hasten the negotiations' conclusion. The Commission denies these claims, asserting that the EC has exclusive authority to negotiate trade agreements with global partners, but does so under a mandate granted by all member states.