Far‑right frontrunner faces election ban amid fraud probe
Calin Georgescu, the favourite in the Romanian presidential elections, might not be allowed to participate in the re-vote in May. The reason is allegations of electoral fraud. "It is uncertain if another far-right candidate will win over his electorate," assesses Costin Ciobanu, a political scientist from Aarhus University.
On Wednesday, Romanian prosecutors initiated a criminal investigation against the frontrunner in the presidential race. Georgescu was accused of electoral fraud, including irregularities in campaign financing and spreading hate speech.
"The communist Bolshevik system is continuing its heinous abuse. They are looking to invent evidence to justify stealing the election and to do anything in their efforts to block a new candidacy from me," commented Georgescu on Facebook.
Repeated elections
The far-right politician, who praised Romania's fascist leaders of the 1930s and expressed admiration for the policies of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, was the unexpected winner of the first round of presidential elections on 24 November last year.
However, at the beginning of December, the Constitutional Court (CC) disregarded the election results and repeated the voting. The court argued that Georgescu's campaign team violated electoral law and engaged in non-transparent campaign financing, and it also pointed out possible Russian interference in the electoral process.
The Constitutional Court may block the candidacy
Political scientist Costin Ciobanu from Aarhus University believes that despite the lack of a quick court decision, the Constitutional Court might block Georgescu.
"To block someone's candidacy, a court decision is needed, and this will not be made quickly enough," Ciobanu assesses. This court had previously annulled the election results in which Georgescu won, citing violations of electoral law.
"In any case, Georgescu's candidacy is improbable since the Constitutional Court is most likely to block it, the same institution that decided to annul the elections he won," notes the expert, emphasising that there is no appeal against the CC's decision.
The future of Georgescu's electorate
Uncertainty about Georgescu's future in the elections raises questions about his electorate. George Simion, the leader of the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), may gain popularity if he is excluded.
Like Georgescu, Simion advocates far-right and isolationist views. Still, in the previous election campaign, he fiercely attacked his competitor and supported his candidacy in the second round only under tremendous pressure from voters.
According to a Sociopol poll, Simion has 24% support in a scenario without Georgescu. "The results of this poll show that there are many supporters of Georgescu who do not support Simion," adds Ciobanu.
