German intelligence warns of Russia's military buildup for the West conflict
A new analysis by the German military and intelligence shows that Russia is arming itself for a conflict with the West, writes "Süddeutsche Zeitung".
Representatives of the German Bundeswehr are increasingly warning of Russia's threat to European peace. "The reason for the change in tone among the military is a new assessment by the German intelligence service BND," claims Süddeutsche Zeitung, citing its own journalists' findings and public broadcasters WDR and NDR.
According to the newspaper, the analysis was created just a few weeks ago and is circulating among those responsible for security matters in Berlin. "Apparently, the Bundeswehr and intelligence services do not want to be caught off guard again, as they were in the winter of 2021-2022, when the BND did not believe an attack would occur despite the massive deployment of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border," writes SZ.
The war in Ukraine does not weaken Russian forces
Furthermore, analysts paint a "grim picture" of Moscow's plans in the latest report. "Russia believes it is in a systemic conflict with the West and is ready to realise its imperialist goals using military force—even beyond Ukraine. Even if currently there is no indication of an ‘imminent confrontation between Russia and NATO,’ the document states that Russia will likely fulfil all conditions to be ready for a ‘large-scale conventional war’ by the end of the decade. The war in Ukraine, ongoing for over three years, has not weakened Russian forces," it reads.
According to the German intelligence service analysts, Moscow is not ready for compromise and is capable of continuing the war this year.
"Despite sanctions, Russia can prepare militarily to the extent that it will soon be able to attack a NATO state. The Kremlin could not only compensate for the high personnel and material losses in Ukraine but also continue to arm. According to the analysis, the war-oriented economy produces more than is needed for war actions in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin also ordered an increase of the armed forces to 1.5 million soldiers by 2026," reports "SZ".
Baltic states exposed to attack
The authors of the analysis also address the situation in the Baltic region.
"About three-quarters of the Russian military personnel and equipment from regions bordering the Baltic States are currently tied up in Ukraine. However, the Russian air force and navy are still fully operational in the area. Therefore, the current threat of a Russian invasion of the Baltic States should be assessed as relatively low. However, if the war in Ukraine were to end, as the report states, Russian units would likely be moved to this region," it adds.
The Russian economy continues to produce weapons at full capacity, so even after the end of the fighting in Ukraine, the equipment lost there will be quickly replaced. "Russian soldiers will return, and barracks and arsenals will be full again. Moscow could then concentrate its forces directly on a NATO country," it reads.
"Süddeutsche Zeitung" recalls that the head of the German Federal Intelligence Service, Bruno Kahl, warned in November last year that his agency sees a real danger of a Russian attack on a NATO state within just a few years. According to Kahl, high-ranking military officers in Moscow doubt that in the event of an attack on a member of the Alliance, others will fulfil the mutual assistance obligation. This increases the risk that Russia will test this scenario through a limited attack, for example, in the Baltic States.
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