Hollywood's dimming fortunes in China amidst trade tensions
American movies disappearing from Chinese theatres? It's possible. However, there were so few of them that Hollywood certainly won't collapse because of it.
The U.S. trade war with the rest of the world is intensifying, especially since it appears not to be unfolding as Trump imagined: that after his threats and announcements of high tariffs, countries would come pleading for leniency. Many players in this arena do not intend to yield to the power and are even promising significant retaliation.
The Chinese dragon breathes fire
The most important of them seems to be China. Right after the announcement of American tariffs, they rolled out heavy artillery, not only announcing high retaliatory tariffs but also restrictions on exporting rare earth metals to the USA, which are absolutely essential for the American economy in producing modern devices.
Following this exchange of blows, a new cultural debate, specifically about cinema, emerged. There are comments that the trade war will limit or even end collaboration between the countries regarding film distribution. China is already threatening to employ various tools that limit the profits of American companies, and banning the entry of Hollywood films can be done easily. Entities under party control essentially control distribution in the local market.
Chinese youth may suffer significantly from being unable to watch films with American superheroes in their local theatres. Still, their producers, cut off from a vast market, will suffer even more. There is logic to this thinking, but it is crucial to make an important caveat that significantly weakens arguments about the impending financial disaster for Hollywood.
Profits at the level of peanuts
This simple caveat: American films are already relatively few on Chinese cinema screens and do not bring Hollywood the desired stunning profits. Their disappearance will not result in a repertoire or attendance catastrophe in the Middle Kingdom.
It seems that today's share of American cinema in the Chinese market is not a crucial element of the economic play between the superpowers. This situation has been frustrating and disappointing for Hollywood for years. This time, however, it may prove a significant relief: there have been no massive profits, so there will not be massive losses either.
Almost a year ago, the critical industry magazine "Variety" sounded the alarm: "For the past four years, Chinese audiences have shown little interest in Hollywood films." You can find numbers confirming this conclusion on the Statista service, which publishes detailed market data. In 2024, as much as 85% of the Chinese cinema repertoire was local productions. Only 76 titles came from abroad, with a market share of 21%, and it should be noted that this number includes productions not only from the USA but also from other countries, such as popular Japanese and Korean animated films or Bollywood titles. Considering this, it turns out that the American share in the Chinese film market did not even exceed 4%.
This is a drastic decline compared to previous years, when Hollywood could boast double-digit results. Analyses of this phenomenon show that the main reasons are political and economic tensions between China and the USA and an increasing Chinese trend towards domestic big-budget blockbusters.
"The trade war with China couldn't have come at a worse time for Hollywood," comments Tomasz Raczek, journalist and film industry expert. "Hollywood films have recorded worse attendance results in China for several years. The reason is twofold: firstly, Chinese authorities repeatedly counter American blockbusters on their screens with their productions, and secondly, lately Hollywood has been unable to produce new, truly interesting, and unique films that aren't sequels or repeats. Hollywood is experiencing a crisis, and the trade war with China can only deepen it."
Swan song in Minecraft
The American industry sought a chance to reverse this trend with the upcoming premieres of big, essential titles. And there was something to it - just a few days ago, "Minecraft: The Movie" indeed broke the Chinese bank: during the opening weekend, it made almost £12 million and jumped to first place at the box-office, ending the streak of the local hit "Ne Zha 2," which was at the top of the sales list for over two months. However, it looks like - at least until the trade war escalates - this could be the swan song of Hollywood cinema in China.
"And Hollywood had high hopes for the rest of the season," adds Krzysztof Spór, film critic and market observer. "In summer, several big productions were set to hit Chinese theatres, including the next part of 'Mission: Impossible.' Some even claimed that these titles could bring Hollywood significant profits in China, comparable to years ago. This is unlikely to happen," assures the expert.
"There is an even bigger problem related to the trade war, although only indirectly with China: since big changes are on the horizon in the global economy, the natural tendency will be the desire or necessity, to save. And what do people save first? Naturally, on pleasures and entertainment. Stock markets are reporting declines; large cinema chains are already dreading ticket sales in the coming months; Disney is loudly expressing concern about the profits of its large amusement parks. This could be a serious industry problem, and since Trump is essentially at war with it, he certainly won't care," adds Spór.
