India and Pakistan: Rising tensions over Kashmir dispute
India's attack on Pakistan is yet another chapter in the longstanding conflict between these countries. The dispute over Kashmir has persisted since 1947. The region, divided by the Line of Control, remains one of the most militarised areas globally, and recent developments, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, threaten further escalation.
The origins of the conflict trace back to the partition of British India in 1947. At that time, the Maharaja of Kashmir, Hari Singh, faced an invasion by tribes supported by Pakistan and consequently signed an accession agreement with India. This led to the first in a series of Indo-Pakistani wars (1947–1948, 1965, 1971, 1999), shaping the division of Kashmir into the area administered by India (Jammu and Kashmir) and the regions governed by Pakistan (Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan). Subsequent decades have witnessed border clashes, Pakistan's backing of separatist movements, and Indian military operations in the Kashmir Valley.
The main causes of the dispute include religious differences—the Muslim majority of Kashmir is supported by Pakistan, while India regards the region as an integral part of its territory. The strategic location of Kashmir is also significant, involving control over the water resources of the Indus and Jhelum rivers. The geopolitical importance is further elevated by its proximity to China, which controls Aksai Chin, and the Siachen Glacier, the highest battlefield in the world.
Recent years have ushered in new tensions. In 2019, India revoked the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir, sparking protests and exacerbating relations with Pakistan. The attack on tourists in Pahalgam in April 2025, which India attributed to fighters supported by Pakistan, led to a diplomatic crisis. India responded by closing the border, expelling Pakistani diplomats, and suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, vital for Pakistani agriculture. Pakistan reacted by restricting trade, closing its airspace to Indian airlines, and suspending the Shimla Agreement.
India stronger than Pakistan
In terms of military strength, India surpasses Pakistan, with an army of 1.4 million soldiers, a defence budget of $81 billion (£60.6 billion), and advanced weaponry, including nuclear arms. Pakistan, with an army of 650,000 soldiers and a budget of $10.4 billion (£7.8 billion), relies on asymmetric tactics and nuclear deterrence, supported by China. Both countries avoid full-scale warfare due to the nuclear risk, but border incidents, such as the exchange of fire along the Line of Control in April 2025, sustain tensions.
The conflict carries broader consequences. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty threatens a food crisis in Pakistan, while the closure of airspace by both countries disrupts international flight connections. The international community, including the USA, China, and the UN, calls for de-escalation; however, the lack of consensus complicates mediation. Kashmir remains a symbol of unresolved tensions, where religion, politics, and natural resources converge in one of the most enduring conflicts of the modern era.
