Kremlin eyes Belarus merger post-Ukraine conflict
Sources close to the presidential administration told Meduza that the Kremlin authorities may revisit the plan to annex Belarus to Russia after the war in Ukraine concludes. According to their account, this process may be presented as a "deeper integration" of both countries.
They might organize elections, run campaigns, and highlight recent accomplishments; according to one source, reuniting territories that split apart in the 1980s and 1990s to form a union of republics would mark a significant milestone. However, the individual emphasized that the feasibility of this plan hinges entirely on Alexander Lukashenko, who appears determined to maintain his legitimacy as a leader.
Lukashenko ready to transfer power
In the lead-up to the next presidential elections in Belarus, Lukashenko, who has held the office of president since 1994 and is seeking a seventh term, declared his readiness to transfer power to a new generation in the future.
The Belarusian leader stated, "I don’t cling to power, I will do my best to quietly hand it over to new generation. Because I hope that I and you as well will still live under the new government." However, he added that he intends to continue working in a state position as long as his health allows.
In December 2024, Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an agreement on mutual security guarantees. The document specifies, among other things, the obligations of both parties in matters concerning defence, protection of sovereignty, independence, and the constitutional order of both countries, as well as ensuring territorial integrity and the inviolability of the State Union's borders. The agreement also includes provisions regarding the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil.
"Creeping annexation" of Belarus
Even before the onset of the full-scale war in Ukraine, the Kremlin developed a plan for the "creeping annexation" of Belarus by 2030. The plan included "harmonisation" of Russian and Belarusian law, "coordinated foreign and defence policy," and "trade and economic cooperation" based on Russian interests.
After the war in Ukraine commenced, Lukashenko declared that Moscow and Minsk would create a "unity of two independent states" and would jointly "overcome sanctions." However, he emphasised that he and Putin "are not foolish enough to act using old methods" and incorporate Belarus into Russia.
