Kremlin's strategy: Exploiting uncertainty in West over Ukraine
According to the latest report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is increasing pressure and attempting to persuade Western countries to make decisions favourable to Russia regarding the war in Ukraine. Moscow is exploiting uncertainty about future U.S. policy.
"The Kremlin apparently wants to exploit uncertainty about future U.S. policy regarding Ukraine and is intensifying its reflexive control campaign towards European countries," ISW assesses.
The method of "reflexive control" involves influencing recipients to elicit a desired reaction, including through manipulation and disinformation.
In this context, ISW notes the first telephone conversation in two years between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Vladimir Putin.
During the conversation, Putin "repeated several Kremlin information actions, aimed at influencing the German government and other Western countries to urge Ukraine towards premature peace instead of providing it with military support."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky assessed that it is opening a 'Pandora's box', and also that the phone conversation helps Putin achieve his goals: reducing international isolation and pushing negotiations on Russian terms, which "will lead nowhere."
Moscow is not ready to compromise
ISW summarises that recently, Russia has intensified informational and rhetorical activities aimed at influencing the foreign policy of the future U.S. administration formed by President-elect Donald Trump.
On the other hand, Moscow emphasises that it is not ready to compromise, clearly indicating that its long-term goal remains the capitulation of Ukraine.
