Naples on edge: Expert warns of imminent supervolcano threat

The Naples region in Italy is frequently affected by earthquakes. Beneath the land and sea lies a massive supervolcano covering an area of 200 square kilometres. Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo, a volcanologist from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), warns that the volcano could erupt at any moment, without warning.

Campi Flegrei, known as the Phlegraean Fields, differs from other well-studied volcanoes such as Etna. "It can surprise us, even when there's calm, without bradyseismic activity or deformation. We don’t know the scale or the exact location where the source of the eruption will open," emphasizes Mastrolorenzo, quoted by "Bild".

The expert adds that currently, the volcano is rising by about 2.5 centimetres per month, which has already made the entrance to the port of Pozzuoli too shallow for boats.

Although authorities have prepared a mass evacuation plan, experts assure that an eruption is not imminent. However, Mastrolorenzo holds a different view. "We cannot predict the eruption of a supervolcano because no one has experienced it before. The system is too complex to be predictable. We can try to forecast if we are close to an eruption, but we must be ready for the worst," said the expert.

He added that recent earthquakes, including a 4.4 magnitude one last week, might be harbingers of an eruption. The evacuation plan involves moving half a million people within 72 hours, which Mastrolorenzo considers a "very optimistic hypothesis".

If an eruption were to occur, the disaster for the region would be immense. The energy released during the eruption could be ten times greater than that which destroyed Pompeii in 79 AD. The volcano has been emitting increasing amounts of carbon dioxide for years, recently reaching 5,500 tonnes per day. The emission of hydrogen sulfide and other gases in the Solfatara crater has increased fivefold. "The supereruption is long overdue," concluded Mastrolorenzo.