North Korea's $20B (£15B) windfall from Russian ammunition deals
North Korea's involvement in Russia's conflict with Ukraine has reportedly yielded a profit exceeding $20 billion (£15 billion), as detailed by American publication "Newsweek" on Wednesday, referencing a report from the South Korean think tank, the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA).
According to the report, the majority of the economic benefits for North Korea stem from their supply of ammunition to Russia. Additionally, Pyongyang has gained by sending thousands of soldiers to fight against Ukraine. It is estimated that around 4,000 of the 11,000 North Korean military personnel sent to the Russian front have died. They primarily operate in Russia's Kursk region.
KIDA noted North Korea probably prefers receiving material and technical assistance from Moscow in exchange for its support.
The report's authors stressed the urgent need to end the conflict in Ukraine and to take measures to halt military cooperation between Russia and North Korea.
"Newsweek" pointed out that the findings of the KIDA report are consistent with analyses by the Open Source Center (OSC) and Reuters, which estimate that North Korea dispatched over 15,800 containers of ammunition to Russia between August 2023 and March 2025.
OSC and Reuters used satellite and detailed 3D imaging for their assessments. It is believed that 64 shipments via four Russian ships likely transported between 4.2 and 5.8 million rounds of ammunition from North Korea.
Setbacks in Russia's conflict with Ukraine and the effects of Western sanctions compelled the Kremlin to seek economic and military aid from partners, including China, Iran, and North Korea.
How North Korean assistance reaches Russia
An investigation by the British think tank Open Source Center (OSC) and Reuters uncovered that as of October 2023, North Korea had provided Russia with at least 4 million rounds of artillery ammunition. The supplies also included mortar shells and ballistic missiles, which have been striking Ukrainian cities.
The ammunition reaches Russia by sea. Container ships sail from the port of Nampo to the Russian ports of Danube and Vostochny in the Far East. Satellite imagery monitored by OSC indicates that over the past 20 months, approximately 16,000 containers containing various types of ammunition have been unloaded at the Danube and Vostochny ports. The cargo from these container ships is then loaded onto trains, which transport the ammunition to warehouses near the front line.
As Reuters recalled, Russia began gaining an advantage at the end of 2023, when the conflict shifted from dynamic to positional. Drones and artillery serve as support for infantry during assaults. Ukraine quickly depleted its ammunition reserves, and its allies, including the United States, were unable to supply sufficient quantities. At the same time, Russia, also facing shortages in artillery ammunition, received support from North Korea.
Analysing satellite images depicting container ships carrying ammunition, experts from OSC used the size of the ships, containers, and their capacity to create 3D models for cargo estimation. They determined that at least 15,809 containers with North Korean ammunition have already reached Russia. A single ship carries about 250 containers, with each holding up to 330 units of ammunition.
Reuters clarified that most shipments to Russia occurred in January 2024, when seven shipments were detected from North Korea. Typically, there are three shipments per month.
Russian reports accessed by Reuters revealed that artillery units on certain sections of the front relied solely on North Korean ammunition. This pertains to 152 mm and 122 mm calibre ammunition.
Quoted by Reuters, Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka suggested that Russia's ability to sustain attack levels at the end of 2023 was due to North Korean support. Furthermore, "it allowed the Russians to maintain an offensive posture and constant pressure on Ukrainian forces throughout most of 2024 into 2025," assessed Muzyka.
