Nuclear tensions rise as India-Pakistan conflict escalates
An expert from Oslo warns of the potential use of nuclear weapons in the India-Pakistan conflict. Although the chances are slim, they cannot be completely ruled out.
Key information
- India and Pakistan possess nuclear arsenals, which increases the risk of conflict escalation.
- The USA, Russia, and the UN show weakness in responding to the situation in Kashmir.
- The expert from Oslo highlights the unpredictability of US actions in the region.
Recently, conflict between India and Pakistan has escalated in the disputed region of Kashmir. India launched an attack on targets in Pakistan, which was met with a response from the Pakistani side. As a result of these actions, many civilians on both sides of the border have been killed.
Henrik Urdal, head of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, warns that although the chances of using nuclear weapons are slim, they cannot be completely ruled out. Both countries possess nuclear arsenals, which always increases the risk of conflict escalation.
The risk of using nuclear weapons exists whenever states that possess them are in conflict with each other — said Urdal.
He also added that Pakistan does not have sufficient military capabilities and is facing financial problems, which may mean that it will not seek to escalate the conflict with India. - I expect loud and radical rhetoric, but the actual reactions of Islamabad will ultimately not be so harsh, assessed the head of PRIO.
Weakness of international players
The expert points out the weaknesses of the USA, Russia, and the UN in responding to the situation in Kashmir. Washington sends conflicting signals, which may encourage the parties to the conflict to escalate further. Urdal emphasises that global polarisation paralyses the functioning of the UN Security Council.
The lower risk of sanctions from the USA may encourage parties to numerous conflicts to escalate them — Urdal assessed. He cited Israel as an example, which, in light of American inconsistency, continues military operations in the Gaza Strip.
If the conflict between India and Pakistan escalates, the imposition of sanctions is possible. However, the reaction to Russian aggression already weakens global trade and international cooperation, reducing the willingness to take similar actions.
