Ozone recovery: MIT research signals promising reversal
New research conducted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with support from NASA has demonstrated that the damage caused by humans is gradually being mitigated—the ozone layer is returning to its original state. This shows that global efforts are worthwhile, even if they take years.
The ozone hole, a topic of concern for years, is finally showing signs of recovery, thanks to international actions implemented nearly 40 years ago. New calculations indicate that it could disappear completely by 2035 if we maintain current standards and continue to reduce CFCs. Ozone is very important to us because it acts like a shield protecting the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation from the Sun. This radiation is potent enough to damage the genetic material of cells, potentially causing cancerous changes in humans and animals.
The reduction of harmful substances significantly heals the ozone layer
Recent research by scientists from the American Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) reveals that the ozone recovery is proceeding very smoothly. The researchers assert that the "healing" process of the Antarctic ozone layer is a direct result of global efforts to reduce substances depleting the ozone layer. The research findings have just been published in the scientific journal "Nature".
The MIT team previously observed signs of ozone recovery. However, the new study, for the first time, with high statistical certainty, demonstrates that it is precisely the reduction of ozone-depleting substances, and not other factors, such as weather variability or increased greenhouse gas emissions into the stratosphere, that is the main reason for this regeneration.
Unrecoverable health effects were discovered as early as the 1990s
In the Earth's stratosphere, ozone is a naturally occurring gas that acts like a sunscreen, protecting the planet from the Sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation. In 1985, scientists discovered a seasonally appearing “hole” in the ozone layer over Antarctica—the cause was chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs—chemical substances that were then used in refrigeration, air conditioning, insulation, and aerosol propellants. When CFCs rise into the stratosphere, they can decompose ozone under certain seasonal conditions. This temporary depletion of the ozone layer allowed UV rays to reach the surface, leading to skin cancer and other adverse health effects.
They generated "parallel worlds" for the study
In their new study, the MIT team applied a quantitative approach and "fingerprinting" method, borrowed from the field of climate change science, to identify the cause of the Antarctic ozone layer's recovery. The researchers began by simulating the Earth's atmosphere and generated many "parallel worlds" under different initial conditions.
For example, they conducted simulations under conditions assuming no increase in greenhouse gases or ozone-depleting substances. In these scenarios, any changes in ozone should be the result of natural weather variability. They compared these simulations to see how ozone in the Antarctic stratosphere changes in response to different initial conditions.
The ozone hole will disappear by 2035
The team found a pattern of ozone recovery specifically related to the conditions of declining ozone-depleting substances. They then sought confirmation in actual satellite observations of the ozone hole from 2005 to 2025. In 2018, this evidence was the strongest, allowing the team to state with 95-percent certainty that the ozone recovery was mainly due to the reduction of ozone-depleting substances.
MIT Professor Susan Solomon predicts that if the trend continues, the long-awaited time when the ozone layer remains intact and the ozone hole disappears forever may soon arrive. If human efforts to limit CFCs continue, this will probably happen by 2035. Changes can be tracked on the NASA observatory website.
