Putin's dilemma: Ceasefire uncertainty amid strategic gains
Vladimir Putin is unlikely to support the 30-day ceasefire agreement reached during Tuesday's negotiations between the US and Ukrainian delegations, according to sources close to the Kremlin, in a discussion with Reuters.
According to experts, Kyiv has effectively shifted the game to the opponent's side, but the Russian army still holds an advantage on the battlefield, and Moscow is not inclined to surrender it.
Russia must agree on the terms of the ceasefire and receive certain guarantees – a high-ranking official told Reuters: It will be difficult for Putin to agree to this agreement in its current form. He is in a strong position because Russia is conducting an offensive. Without guarantees accompanying the ceasefire, Russia's position could weaken quickly, and the West may begin to accuse it of lacking the will to end the war – he added.
According to another high-ranking Russian source, from Moscow's perspective, the ceasefire proposal looks like a trap because "it would be difficult for Putin to stop the war without concrete guarantees or commitments."
Russian leaders have repeatedly emphasised that for any stable agreement to be reached, Kyiv must relinquish control over the unoccupied areas of the four regions that Russia has partially seized. However, after Ukraine accepted the US proposal for an immediate, temporary 30-day ceasefire during negotiations in Saudi Arabia, "the ball is now in Russia's court" – stated US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
This is a very clever move by the Ukrainians – said Samuel Charap, a senior political analyst at RAND Corporation, to Bloomberg. – They are putting the onus on Russia to either accept an arrangement that they otherwise would be completely opposed to or risk Trump’s ire – he added.
Meanwhile, a third Russian informant told Reuters that the United States has agreed to resume military aid to Ukraine and intelligence sharing, concealing it – as he claims – under the guise of a truce proposal.
A day earlier, Bloomberg sources in Western intelligence agencies reported that Putin does not intend to make concessions in negotiations on ending military actions. According to their assessments, he is not ready to compromise on the occupied territories, Ukraine's neutral status, or Western peacekeeping forces, and his demands are deliberately "maximalist" because he realises that they are unlikely to be accepted by Kyiv and European countries.
