Rising tensions: US‑China relations on the brink of conflict
There are growing concerns that the strained relations between the US and China could be a prelude to a potential military conflict. An expert points out five key signals that may indicate this. The situation in recent weeks has been exacerbated by an open trade war and the imposition of massive tariffs on each other.
What you need to know
- Cyberattacks: China is intensifying attacks on American critical infrastructure, which may increase the risk of conflict.
- Tensions over Taiwan: The number of incidents in Taiwan's air defence identification zone has increased, which may indicate China's aggressive plans.
- Trade conflict: Growing trade tensions between the US and China could lead to an escalation of conflict.
Trade war and cyberattacks
In recent weeks, the United States and China have announced increasingly severe tariffs on each other. It's not just theorising about a "new cold war" anymore but a real opening of a trade conflict, notes an expert quoted by "Bloomberg".
Trade tensions between the US and China may be one of the most dangerous signals of an impending conflict. China is beginning to restrict the supply of key raw materials, reminiscent of the situation before World War II, when trade sanctions led to the escalation of conflict in the Pacific region.
China is increasingly attacking American critical infrastructure with advanced offensive technologies. Programmes like Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon are targeted against ports, airports, and other key facilities. - If the scope and consequences of cyberattacks rise, the risk of a wider war will increase commensurately - warns James Stavridis, former US Navy admiral.
Tensions over Taiwan and actions in the South China Sea
The increase in the number of incidents in Taiwan's air defence identification zone is worrying. Last year, more than 3,000 such cases were recorded, which is nearly double the increase compared to 2023. This is a signal that China may be striving to take control of the "rogue province" - experts note.
- Monitoring the level of incursions into the Taiwanese Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) can provide a key indicator of China’s forward-leaning military strategy, - emphasises Stavridis.
China claims rights to almost the entire South China Sea. Despite international opposition, Beijing is building artificial islands that serve as bases for the Chinese navy. These actions, including harassing coastal states like the Philippines, could be a source of potential conflict.
Chinese fleet grows in strength
China is building warships at a dizzying pace, averaging 20-30 per year. The current Chinese fleet is larger than the American one, and Beijing has announced it will have over 400 ships. According to experts, this shows that China is preparing for a possible naval conflict with the US.
