Russia unlikely to use nukes, but missile threat looms
Russia will not decide to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, claims Roman Sviatan, a military expert and reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Instead, Ukraine should prepare for missile attacks.
According to the portal of the Ukrainian agency Unian, which cites the words of military expert Roman Sviatan, Russia does not plan to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine because it fears a response in the form of a "dirty bomb" (a bomb aimed at spreading radioactive material over a large area). It is unlikely that the Oreshnik will be used, asserts Sviatan.
The Oreshnik will not be used, but they have other weapons in their arsenal
Sviatan emphasised that Russia could still conduct massive missile attacks on Ukraine. He pointed to the possibility of using missiles such as Kalibr, Iskander, or Kinzhal.
Unian reminds that at the beginning of May 2025, Russia again threatened Ukraine with the use of the Oreshnik missile. As a result, the airspace over Kapustin Yar, from which this missile was previously launched, was closed.
Unian also points out that the Russians may have difficulties producing Oreshnik missiles. This may explain the lack of public references to this weapon for an extended period.
Expert Sviatan noted that using an intercontinental ballistic missile against Ukraine would be "idiocy." In his opinion, Russia used the Oreshnik only once to demonstrate its capabilities.
The Oreshnik Missile
There are no detailed technical data on Oreshnik missiles yet. Assuming that this technology is based on the RS-26 system, it can be assumed that the initial launch weight of the missile ranges from about 44 to 55 tonnes. This weapon was designed to cover distances of up to 6,000 kilometres. The standard equipment likely includes four warheads, each with a yield of around 0.3 megatons.
In December 2024, Ukrainians announced that in the found fragments of the Oreshnik missile from an attack carried out in November, they discovered parts with serial numbers. These numbers indicated that elements of the missile were produced as far back as April 2017. This information may raise valid doubts about Russian assurances regarding the modernity of the technology used in this weapon.
