Russian fears over NATO drills fuel fresh propaganda surge
Leading Russian propagandists have amplified the threats made by Nikolai Patrushev, an adviser to Putin. He claims that NATO is practising scenarios to seize control of the Kaliningrad region. "Russia fears control over the Baltic Sea routes and restrictions on the so-called shadow fleet's operations," explains Dr Wojciech Siegień.
Much of the information shared by Russian media and government representatives is likely untrue. Such reports may be part of an information war from the Russian Federation.
"For the second year in a row, NATO is conducting the largest exercises in decades near our borders, practising offensive actions on a large scale – from Vilnius to Odessa, taking over the Kaliningrad region, blocking navigation in the Baltic and Black Seas, and preemptive attacks on permanent bases of Russian nuclear deterrent forces," said Nikolai Patrushev in a recently published interview for the Russian agency TASS.
The former head of the Federal Security Service currently advises Vladimir Putin. In an extensive interview, he claims to "see the outlines of victory in the operation in Ukraine." He states that "Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and many other European capitals are deploying the war machine against Russia," "reveling in scenarios of nuclear apocalypse." He mentioned three names: Keir Starmer (Prime Minister of the United Kingdom), Ursula von der Leyen (head of the European Commission), and Mark Rutte (NATO Secretary General), considering them the main threat to Russia's security.
After the publication of the interview, Patrushev's assertions were picked up by leading Russian propagandists such as Vladimir Solovyov. Retired General Andrei Gurulev, now a politician, wrote on Telegram that "the war with Ukraine must be won to the end, or another will break out." He also complained that threats are coming from all directions against Russia.
Why is Russia threatening and making accusations?
Dr Wojciech Siegień, a Russia expert, points out that Patrushev's comments are closely related to Russian concerns about control over maritime routes, which are strategically crucial for Russian trade. Kaliningrad is close to Poland, but the message is primarily targeted at the United Kingdom and other EU countries that can control the exit from the Baltic Sea basin, says Siegień.
He emphasises that Baltic ports are crucial for the Kremlin – they are used, among other things, to supply the Kaliningrad region and service the port in St. Petersburg.
Russia carefully observes NATO's exercise scenarios and fears their consequences. This is particularly so, given that part of its "shadow fleet"-tankers transporting Russian oil despite sanctions —operates here, adds Siegień.
What is NATO doing? Here's what irritates Russia
Patrushev did not specify which NATO exercises he was referring to. However, in 2025, the Alliance conducted several significant manoeuvres. Among the largest was "Steadfast Dart 25" in February, with the participation of about 10,000 soldiers from nine member states. The exercises aimed to test NATO's ability to quickly deploy forces in Romania and Bulgaria, without direct US support.
In March, the "Joint Viking 2025" operation took place in Norway - exercises involving 10,000 soldiers from Norway, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, the UK, and the USA. They trained in protecting NATO's northern flank.
Meanwhile, until the end of April, there was "Baltic Guard" – exercises involving patrolling areas where pipelines, power cables, and fibre optics run. This was a response to sabotage incidents near Finland and Estonia, for which Russia was suspected. NATO made no secret of the exercise goals and, on the contrary, published official communications in Russian.
At the end of March, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte issued a stern warning to Putin, stressing that any misjudgment leading to an attack on Poland would trigger a decisive and overwhelming response from the Alliance. He made it clear that such action would carry severe consequences.
Russian politicians have repeatedly frightened their citizens with the imminent entry of NATO into Kaliningrad. In the summer of 2022, such rumours sparked panic in trading, rising prices, and stockpiling of essentials like sugar and fuel. Russian companies were losing out due to the lack of tourists. The governor of the Kaliningrad region held a press conference to prevent a crisis.
Now our main task is to tell the whole country that you can fly to Kaliningrad safely. Poles with machine guns are not wandering the streets here. Sometimes I just read some nonsense. I read handouts from the Polish media and think: what kind of brainwashing is this? a Russian official thundered at the time.
