Russian offensive stalls as Ukrainian counterattacks intensify
In the past fortnight, the intensity of Russian attacks has decreased. This is not due to Donald Trump's actions but rather the exhaustion of Russian forces after a highly intense period of fighting. The Ukrainians, meanwhile, have adapted their defensive tactics.
The Russian operational pause has now entered its second week. Heavy fighting, ongoing since November, has exhausted both sides. Currently, the Russians are only conducting offensive actions near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Chasiv Yar. However, their intensity is significantly lower than a fortnight ago. The Russians are merely attempting to maintain constant pressure on positions where they made some progress at the end of January.
Across the entire active front, which is about 50 to 65 kilometres wide, there are around 100 combat engagements daily, roughly 30 to 40% of which are in the Pokrovsk direction. There, the Russians are attempting to reach the Donetsk Oblast border. For the Kremlin, this section of the front holds mainly propaganda significance. Near Pokrovsk, they are closest to the Donetsk Oblast border, and the "liberation" of its entirety is one of Vladimir Putin's promises. Currently, they are merely 1 to 3 kilometres from the border.
As expected, the Russians struck along the T0406 road and the highway connecting Solone with Novoserhiivka in recent days in an effort to reach their objective as quickly as possible. However, reaching the border between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts has no tactical significance. It does not facilitate the capture of Pokrovsk but rather fuels Kremlin propaganda.
For now, however, the attackers are not advancing westward. The Ukrainians have not only strengthened their defence but also begun conducting local counterattacks, causing the aggressors northeast of the city to switch to defence.
Russian mistakes
The Russians eventually managed to capture all of Velyka Novosilka, although the Kremlin had announced its capture several times before. They did not manage to follow through, and the Ukrainian units in this sector retained their operational capabilities. The subunits withdrew behind the Mokri Yaly River. Thus, Russian claims and videos suggesting the supposed encirclement of Ukrainian soldiers turned out to be fictitious.
Moreover, cover units remained on the eastern bank of the river, continuing to carry out counterattacks to prevent the Russians from crossing the river. This might prove problematic for another reason—they lack bridging equipment, and unexpectedly for this time of year, thaws are possible.
The Russians are faring even worse in reclaiming the occupied lands of the Kursk Oblast. After heavy losses, North Korean units were withdrawn to the second line to await reinforcements. The rotation of Russian units is also underway, which the Ukrainians have decided to exploit.
A significant surprise for the Russians was the Ukrainian strike southeast of Sudzha. The Ukrainians launched an attack there with a reinforced mechanised battalion battle group supported by tanks. They managed to wedge themselves between the airborne regiment and mechanised unit, penetrating nearly 8 kilometres into Russian positions. The Russians managed to slow and stop the attack only after deploying the 177th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade.
The strike slightly improved the tactical situation for the Ukrainians in the eastern part of the bulge, but the Russians are still trying to reclaim lost ground, mainly attacking from the northwest along the Rylsk–Korenyovo–Sudzha highway. The Russians will certainly press again in the coming weeks to retake Sudzha. This time, however, Putin has not set any "final deadlines."
Nonetheless, the Kremlin will try at all costs to reclaim the land. Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, stated that "Russia never considered and will not consider the issue of exchanging its territory. Obviously, Ukrainian units will be expelled from this land. Those who are not destroyed will be expelled."
Change in tactics
Despite continuous Russian pressure on key sections, significant differences can be seen in conducting offensive operations compared to the January battles. Assault units are attacking narrower sections, using smaller forces, often without tank support and only with infantry fighting vehicles serving as fire support vehicles. This is the best evidence of the depletion of human and equipment reserves.
Meanwhile, the scale of counterattacks by Ukrainians in the past week suggests that Kyiv is gradually deploying units that began forming last year. They want to capitalise on the temporary weakening of the Russians to improve their defensive positions before the opponent resumes offensive operations.
The downside of this type of tactics is that they can quickly exhaust available forces. Counterattacks, by definition, generate greater personnel and equipment losses than static defence. The Ukrainian command is aware of this, and as soldiers report, operations are precisely planned. This holds significant importance, as the Russians still have a numerical advantage, which they can use to neutralise the Ukrainians' qualitative advantage.
