Russia's advances and NATO expert's assurance: Ukraine will endure
Russia continues its attacks on Ukraine, gaining more ground on the battlefield. Nevertheless, Camille Grand, who served as NATO's deputy secretary-general from 2016 to 2022, does not believe that Kyiv will face total defeat. The Frenchman predicts that Vladimir Putin will not succeed in subjugating the entire Ukraine.
Although the Trump administration is attempting to broker peace in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin did not agree to the terms accepted by Ukraine and agreed only to a partial cessation of hostilities. From the Kremlin's perspective, freezing the conflict is illogical, given the Russian army's continued territorial gains.
"Ukraine will survive." Expert expresses confidence
Camille Grand, former deputy secretary-general of NATO, remains optimistic about Ukraine's future, asserting it "will survive the war with Russia". He mentioned that Moscow's losses on the battlefield are so significant, and the advances so minimal, that even if the Kremlin were to commit all of Russia's resources, it still would not be enough to take control of the whole Ukrainian state - Grand commented in an interview with "Rzeczpospolita."
Grand highlighted Trump's actions. The French expert expressed concerns that the President of the United States may not exert sufficient pressure on the Russians, despite it being Putin who rejected a total ceasefire.
The former NATO deputy secretary-general speculates that the White House might instead pressure Ukrainians to accept some of Moscow's demands, such as the country's demilitarisation or the exclusion of a European peacekeeping mission.
Grand also noted that over the past year, the situation on the battlefield has transformed considerably. Just over twelve months ago, both sides were expending significant amounts of munitions, and shortages heavily influenced the outcomes of clashes. - Today, three-quarters of losses are caused by drones, which, in the case of the Ukrainians, are locally produced - added the French researcher, who remains confident that Ukraine will endure, notwithstanding the actions of the Trump administration.
Reduction of military aid to Ukraine
Following a recent dispute in the Oval Office, the United States paused military aid to Ukraine, causing concern among Ukrainian soldiers. This decision, taken by the Trump administration, was perceived as a severe blow, especially at a pivotal stage in the war. The pause in aid encompassed both the delivery of arms and the exchange of intelligence data.
Ukrainian soldiers expressed frustration over the U.S. decision, fearing that the lack of support might weaken their defensive capabilities. The cessation of aid was viewed as an attempt to pressure Ukraine into accepting peace terms dictated by Russia. In reaction, morale among Ukrainian military personnel increased, with many declaring their readiness to continue fighting.
Although cooperation between the USA and Ukraine resumed after a few days, there is no guarantee that the Trump administration won't employ a similar tactic in the future. Kyiv remains aware that a reduction in military and intelligence support from the USA could have serious implications for the battlefield situation.
The absence of American intelligence complicates military operation planning, and munitions shortages are increasingly noticeable on the battlefield. Experts warn that if circumstances do not improve, Ukraine may face significant challenges in defending its territory. A potential remedy involves producing weapons independently and receiving support from European countries.