Russia's new gas proposal to Ukraine: A turning point in relations?
Russia has presented Ukraine with a memorandum concerning the restoration of diplomatic and economic relations, which includes gas transit. These proposals were discussed during the second round of talks in Istanbul.
The Russian memorandum, as reported by the TASS agency, proposes the gradual rebuilding of relations with Ukraine, particularly in the area of natural gas transit.
Talks on this subject took place in Istanbul, where delegations from both countries convened for the second time. Ukraine requires time to analyse the proposed conditions, as Bloomberg notes.
The flow of Russian gas through Ukraine was halted on 1st January, after Kyiv refused to extend the transit agreement.
It was one of two routes through which Gazprom could deliver gas to Europe. Other routes have been closed or damaged, complicating the energy situation.
The closure of Russian gas transit through Ukraine at the beginning of 2025 has resulted in significant financial and strategic losses for Russia. It is estimated that Gazprom may lose between $5 (£3.7) billion and $6.5 (£4.8) billion annually due to the loss of the ability to export gas through this route.
Despite these difficulties, Russia continues to supply gas to Serbia and Hungary through TurkStream, which bypasses Ukraine.
Russia must pay transit fees to countries through which the pipeline runs, such as Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Hungary. On the other hand, Turkey, as a key transit country, gains more control over gas supplies to Europe, which may affect price negotiations and delivery conditions.
As Reuters reported, in May 2025, gas exports through TurkStream increased by 10.3% compared to April. On average, the volume was about 46 million cubic metres of gas per day. Total deliveries through TurkStream in the first five months of 2025 amounted to approximately 7.2 billion cubic metres, which is only a fraction of the prior deliveries through Ukraine that continued until the end of 2024.
This indicates that Russia is seeking alternative supply routes, which may influence future negotiations with Ukraine regarding gas transit.
