Russia's new generation warfare: NATO faces emerging threats
- Russia is already engaging in a new generation of warfare by testing the security systems of NATO countries, as exemplified by the fire at a shopping centre in Warsaw, according to Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Gen. Krzysztof Król. He made this statement on Wednesday during an online conference organised by the think tank, Warsaw Freedom Institute. The military officer also commented that Vladimir Putin is unlikely to agree to halt the war in Ukraine.
During a discussion about the war in Ukraine and the security of NATO's eastern flank, Gen. Król offered a pessimistic assessment of the chances of ending the war and Russia's intentions towards the West.
We know that whenever Russian forces occupy foreign territory, they must be compelled to withdraw. Therefore, these negotiations will be very challenging. Of course, Ukrainians would like to resolve this conflict through diplomatic means, but frankly, I don't believe the Russians are prepared to do so - explained the general during the Polish-American online conference, organised by the Warsaw Freedom Institute.
- For Putin, each additional day of combat and every territorial gain is beneficial, and time favours him. I seriously doubt that President Putin is genuinely ready to end this war - he continued.
He assessed that, simultaneously, Russia is already conducting a "new generation war" against NATO by testing NATO countries' security systems, illustrated by the fire at the shopping centre on Marywilska Street in Warsaw.
- They are engaged in new generation warfare, not necessarily involving soldiers, but through agents. He stated that the damage may not be aimed at military installations, but certainly at civilian targets. He emphasised that it is essential for NATO to prioritise resilience. The military officer also noted that the West lost its ability to influence decisions made in the Kremlin after the Cold War.
"Russians are rebuilding their forces faster than the West is arming itself"
Atlantic Council expert Andrew Michta offered a similar assessment, stating that heavier sanctions will not deter Putin from attempting to conquer Ukraine because he is not motivated by economic factors. He also highlighted that the Russians are rebuilding their forces faster than analysts predicted. Despite current mobilisation, the West is still too slow to enhance its arms industry's production capabilities; consequently, the risk from Moscow will only grow.
Regarding peace talks initiated under pressure from Donald Trump's administration, Michta agreed with another panellist, "War on the Rocks" podcast host Ryan Evans, that the future of the war and the US stance will depend on which side "first offends Trump" through its actions.
He noted that the decision-making process in the White House is "the most centralised since Richard Nixon. "Wall Street Journal correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov, however, suggested it remains unclear whether the Trump administration will opt to end the war or negotiate with Russia at Ukraine's and the region's expense.
Jacek Siewiera: Trump made a mistake
The former head of the National Security Bureau, Jacek Siewiera, stated that although the business-like and tough approach adopted by Donald Trump in negotiations had some effect, Trump made a mistake by hesitating to impose further sanctions on Russia, as without such additional pressure, Putin will not agree to cease the war. He also stated that even if a ceasefire is achieved in Ukraine, the hybrid warfare waged by Russia against the West will persist, as demonstrated by the arson on Marywilska Street.
The situation is quite clear and obvious; this was just one of a series of attacks. This should be included in further discussions about what security in Europe should look like after achieving some form of truce in Ukraine, as it will continue to be part of this ongoing war during peace. This war will not end, he assessed.
James Carafano, an analyst at the right-wing think tank Heritage Foundation, is more optimistic about ending or halting the fighting in Ukraine. He assessed that Putin may consider that he will not secure better conditions than he currently obtains. If he does not, Carafano argues that Trump will not abandon Ukraine but will continue to support its defence, albeit with more emphasis on Europe's contributions.
Also moderately optimistic is former US ambassador to Poland, Daniel Fried, who believes that a peace that is not only just but lasting is possible, and that Ukraine may emerge from it in a form akin to West Germany after World War II: a divided, yet profound and intense state. According to Fried, due to the threat from Russia and Poland's role, Poland has become a "first-rate European power".
