Trump's 'ceasefire' claims unravel as Russia escalates war

The conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin lasted over an hour and a half on Tuesday. It took place exactly one week after delegations from Ukraine and the US held talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, during which Kyiv agreed to a 30-day complete ceasefire. Putin set a condition: first, the suspension of arms deliveries and the exchange of intelligence data. Statements issued by the White House and the Kremlin indicate that the only thing Trump managed to negotiate was a declaration to stop attacks on critical infrastructure and a promise for further negotiations.

According to Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum within the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House in London, the Trump-Putin conversation yielded no breakthrough or success.

Shortly after the conversation ended, Russia launched a massive nighttime drone attack on Ukraine. It was repeated on Wednesday around midday during a phone call between Trump and Zelensky. The US President assured his Ukrainian counterpart that military and intelligence support for Kyiv would continue despite Putin's demands. It is also known that another round of peace talks will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Tatiana Kolesnychenko, a journalist from Wirtualna Polska: Shortly after the conversation with Putin, Trump posted: "My phone conversation today with President Putin of Russia was a very good and productive one." He emphasised that there was an immediate halt to the bombing of critical infrastructure, and the process of ending the war – for the "good of humanity" - is in full swing. Then, 140 Russian drones attacked Ukrainian cities, with one hitting a hospital in Sumy.

Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum within the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House in London: Such an outcome, essentially none, was expected from these talks. Zelensky had previously proposed a halt to the bombing of critical infrastructure. We know that Ukraine and Russia had been negotiating on this topic, but the negotiations broke off after the start of the Kursk operation in August 2024. So, nothing new was heard. Putin still insists on his demands for Ukraine's complete capitulation. But he wants these conditions to be articulated in Trump's own words.

Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), participated in the US-Russia negotiations in Saudi Arabia. He expressed his excitement that the world has become much safer under President Putin and Trump's leadership, calling the conversation "historic" and "epic."

I'm not surprised that the Russians are so enthusiastic. For them, this conversation is an exit from isolation.

And for the White House, a failure? Trump failed to negotiate a full ceasefire; the war will continue.

In the White House, they see it differently. Trump and his people want a reset of relations with Russia, and the war in Ukraine is hindering them. Therefore, there is a high risk that the US will agree to Putin's demands and once again suspend military aid to Ukraine to pave the way for this reset [after Trump's statement yesterday, at least shortly this will not happen - ed. note].

What should Kyiv do now? President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv would support the cessation of attacks in the energy sector but "is waiting for details of the proposal." He also added that he informed Donald Trump that Russia is preparing an offensive in four directions.

Russia unilaterally suspended attacks on critical infrastructure, so Kyiv can only be relieved that there will be fewer shellings. Now, the most important thing is for Ukraine to convince Europe to explain to Trump that the US must continue delivering arms because Ukraine is defending itself against aggression. The most critical issue is air defence. Europe can provide Ukraine with various armaments, but it lacks stocks of missiles for the Patriot systems.

We have to wait for further developments. For now, it seems that Putin and Trump have agreed on nothing unless the White House hasn't announced something publicly.

For instance, about territorial concessions? On the day the Trump-Putin conversation was supposed to take place, the American press was flooded with materials based on reports from anonymous sources. All these articles said that the US is ready to give Ukrainian lands to Russia. Part of this involved recognising Crimea as Russian; elsewhere, there were unrealistic assumptions that the Kremlin would get ports in Odessa. Is this part of the strategy—sowing informational chaos so that we might later welcome the lack of specific agreements with relief?

Maybe we are exaggerating by forcefully looking for logic in Trump's actions. We know he received a "menu" from his advisers with different options for ending the war. And it's not just about dividing Ukrainian territories but also about easing sanctions or inviting Russia back to the G8. These leaks are the options from the "menu," but not the ultimate configuration of a peace agreement.

Let me ask a different question: Does the White House have a plan to end the war? Trump's people keep repeating that everything is an element of some mysterious puzzle, including the scandalous quarrel between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. But in practice, we only have a political seesaw. A week ago, after talks with Ukraine, the press headlines stated that by agreeing with Kyiv on a ceasefire, Trump "challenged Russia." In contrast, we have comparisons to Yalta II, where two powers want to draw new maps.

The new White House administration certainly understands Russia better and what it needs. Ukraine is ignored, which is not new since previous White House administrations often took this approach. Trumpists think that by applying pressure, they can force Ukraine to compromise with Putin. So the US, like Russia, is trying to lower Zelensky's popularity and weaken Ukraine to make it more willing to agree to Russian conditions. This results in the opposite effect, and it’s not just about Ukraine. We see that in Europe, mobilisation has begun around defence against Russia.

The US has one important argument – military assistance, on which Ukraine is dependent.

Russia is equally dependent on the help of its allies. I was surprised by a sociological study ordered by "The Economist" conducted in Ukraine. It showed that 78% of Ukrainians are in favour of continuing the war even without US assistance. Of course, people may not understand how difficult it would be if the United States stopped helping Ukraine, but society is not ready for capitulation. And that's what Trump was counting on.

In Ukraine, there is an understanding that Russia doesn't have a tremendous striking force to collapse the front and seize large territories completely. It is always easier to wage a defensive war than an offensive one. As I mentioned earlier, there is a problem with air defence, which protects cities, civilian infrastructure, and nuclear power plants. Discussions about creating the SkyShield project, which would involve deploying combat aircraft to secure the airspace over Kyiv and Western Ukraine, ensure that one can continue defending oneself without signing a capitulation agreement that Trump and Putin are preparing.

The problem is that Trump trusts Putin. He feels comfortable dealing with him because their morality is on the same level. In Trump's worldview, it's unimaginable that some small, ineffective country could spoil relations between superpowers. Ukraine and Zelensky irritate him, as do Eastern Europe and the United Kingdom, which interfere with his plans for rapprochement with Russia.

We don't know what will happen if Kyiv and Brussels don't take the steps Trump will require. Will offensive words fall again, or will there be a new phase of a trade war, or will military aid to Ukraine be suspended? We'll see if Trump sets any demands after this meeting. If so – it is not worth hoping; they will be Putin's demands, which Trump will present as his own because he doesn't want to publicly come across as Putin's advocate, although it usually ends up this way.

There is a popular theory that since Trump made concessions to Putin during the previous term but nothing came of their relations, maybe it will be similar this time. But we forget that Russians can draw conclusions, which is very visible on the front. Do you see changes in the Kremlin's strategy regarding communication with Trump?

Indeed, this time, the Russians better understand the weaknesses and what motivates Trump. I dislike it when it is said that the US is returning to isolationist politics. The United States is isolating only from Europe, but that does not mean it has ceased to aspire to the status of a global player. It's essential, at least as a means of containing China. Putin understands and uses this, giving Trump the illusory belief that Russia and the US can play against China together. Russian influence on China, as well as on Iran, is minimal.

In both cases, they were solely and exclusively economic relations. But the Kremlin uses the strategy of baiting with "Russian superpower," supposedly to be used against America's enemies. In reality, it will distract from the threat posed by Russia and its efforts to undermine the US alliance with the European Union. Severing transatlantic ties is one of Putin's primary goals.

Do they have a common goal with Trump? During his first term, Trump aimed to weaken the EU as a power centre. Ukraine's fate seems to be of no importance to the current White House administration.

This requires a more profound analysis. Trump's mere desire to weaken the Union is not enough. In all of this, the interests of the American arms industry and the Pentagon still exist, which understand the value of the European market and the importance of collective security. An alliance with Europe may prove very useful if there is a conflict in the Pacific. Ukraine matters only in this context - as a part of Europe. The question is whether Trump is willing to acknowledge that the threat Russia poses to Europe is a threat to his allies.

During the campaign, Trump repeated dozens of times that he would "end the war in one day." Is this a rather weak starting position for negotiations? He's not in a position to fulfil his promise, so is he inclined to accept Russian terms to achieve even a partial ceasefire?

This was predictable. Only one man can end the war - Vladimir Putin. Trump did not start this war, and he cannot end it. He can only help Putin achieve his goals in another way. Here, the Kremlin perfectly sensed Trump's weakness. It's known that he dreams of a Nobel Peace Prize and global recognition. So Putin feeds him the belief that it is possible, but "certain conditions" must be met. I'm just waiting for the White House to start repeating the Russian narrative, for example, about the discrimination against the Russian Orthodox Church or political parties that were banned in Ukraine due to ties with Russia.

So far, Trump and Putin speak as one about holding elections in Ukraine. The Kremlin now expresses all its wishes through Trump's words. This trick works because the American is vain, does not understand the value of alliances, but likes to talk to Putin like a tsar with a tsar. Or an emperor with an emperor. I'm afraid that a black scenario might come true in these imperial vapours, where a truce is signed, the US suspends military assistance, and Russia continues to arm itself and prepare.

There is a difference between flexing muscles and a fundamental violation of international law principles. Do you think Trump is ready to give up part of Ukraine’s territory to Putin?

Yes, because he despises international law and domestic law, as well as the rule of law. But again, Trump, his ambitions, and the national interest of the US are sometimes different. Ukraine represents a valuable source of information for the US about modern military technologies. Two out of four subcontractors for producing long-range drones for the American military were selected because they collaborate with Ukrainian manufacturers. Ukraine does not have theoretical but practical knowledge of its application on the battlefield.

So the question is, does the US want these technologies to end up in China or Russia instead of strengthening its army? To some extent, Ukraine can blackmail America with military technology issues. Since there are no alliances in this world and everyone is responsible for themselves, Kyiv can also seek more favourable markets. China is vitally interested in drone-related technologies. It tests them with the help of Russians in Ukraine. Beijing provides them with equipment and then gets specific information on how it works.

Assuming that Trump has a plan to end the war, considering both sides are making concessions. Ukraine receives security guarantees that protect it for the future, while Russia takes Donbas, which it has razed to the ground. We see that at this stage, there are no talks about punishing Russia for its criminal invasion. Will Kyiv take such a step?

I wouldn't jump so far ahead. The West still has £245 billion of frozen Russian state assets, which can be confiscated in favour of Ukraine as compensation. Of course, Ukrainians are realistic and understand that nothing remains from some cities in Donbas. In other cities, over eleven years of occupation, a generation of people has grown up on Russian propaganda.

However, neither the Verkhovna Rada nor the president will be responsible for signing a document recognising Ukrainian territories as Russian. The maximum Kyiv can do is promise not to attempt to liberate these territories through military means, which is already a concession from Ukraine.

Even if Trump recognises these territories as Russian, it will have no significance. I do not exclude that he will indeed try to pass a UN resolution recognising Crimea as belonging to Russia. But at the same time, this would be the end of the UN because if it comes to a vote, the organisation would contradict its statutes.

What could this give Trump and Russia?

From a legal standpoint, nothing. However, it would create a pretext for the US to lift sanctions against the Kremlin. If it's Russian territory, there are no claims. However, Europe will still consider these territories occupied by Russia. The Putin regime will not last forever. Power will change sooner or later, and the possibility of returning these lands will emerge.