Trump's final offer to Kyiv: Concede Crimea or lose U.S. support
The USA is awaiting a response from Ukraine regarding a peace proposal, which involves recognising Crimea as Russian territory and effectively accepting the current front lines, reports Axios. Trump's plan is described as a "final offer," which Kyiv considers to be distinctly pro-Russian.
According to sources familiar with the document's contents, the United States expects Ukraine to respond by Wednesday to the proposed peace agreement framework, which includes acknowledging Crimea as part of Russia and an unofficial recognition of Russian control over almost all territories occupied since the 2022 invasion.
The one-page document handed to Ukrainian representatives in Paris last week is presented as President Donald Trump's "final offer." The White House has emphasised that if the parties do not reach an agreement soon, the USA is prepared to withdraw from negotiations.
Trump's plan would necessitate significant concessions from President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who has consistently stated that he will not accept the Russian occupation of Crimea and parts of four eastern Ukrainian regions.
"While Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly offered to freeze the current front lines in order to reach a deal, he has previously rejected other elements of the U.S. framework, such as a European peacekeeping force on Ukrainian territory," writes Axios.
The Kremlin, however, quickly denied these reports.
A Ukrainian informant, speaking with Axios, stated that Kyiv views Trump's proposal as "highly biased towards Russia": - The proposal says very clearly what tangible gains Russia gets, but only vaguely and generally says what Ukraine is going to get - said the informant.
What Russia gains from Trump's proposal:
- Recognition by the USA of the annexation of Crimea (de jure).
- De facto recognition of Russian occupation of almost the entire Luhansk region and occupied parts of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.
- A guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, though EU membership is permitted.
- Relief from sanctions imposed since 2014.
- Expanded economic cooperation with the USA, particularly in the energy and industrial sectors.
What Ukraine gains:
- "A robust security guarantee" provided by a group of European countries and possibly other like-minded nations. The document does not specify the details of a peacekeeping operation and does not envisage US participation.
- The return of a small portion of the Kharkiv region occupied by Russia.
- Unimpeded access to the Dnieper, which runs along the southern front line.
- Compensation and aid for reconstruction, without detail of funding sources.
Other elements of the plan:
- The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, should remain Ukrainian territory but be managed by the USA, with energy shared between Ukraine and Russia.
- The document also mentions an agreement between the USA and Ukraine on raw materials, which Trump announced would be signed on Thursday.
According to Axios, this plan was formulated following a four-hour meeting between Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Vladimir Putin, which took place last week.
Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow again this week – this will be his fourth meeting with Putin.
Breakthrough talks in London?
Key talks on an unconditional ceasefire with Russia will occur in London on Wednesday between Ukraine and its allies, as announced by the President of Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky emphasises that this is the first step towards lasting peace.
Both Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will not participate in Wednesday’s talks in London, which will include representatives from the USA, Ukraine, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – despite their initial plans to attend.
The US delegation will be led by Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg. The document referred to will be among the discussion points.
