Ukraine's defence gaps pose a challenge to war success, expert warns
During the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Warsaw, there were remarks about the excellent state of the national defence industry, capable of meeting more and more needs. However, a military analyst with 37 years of experience in the British Army identifies several significant gaps that could threaten the success of the war effort.
Glen Grant, a military analyst and defence expert with 37 years of experience in the British Army, candidly assessed Ukraine's challenges in the war with Russia during an interview with Defence Blog. Grant, the first advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence at the beginning of the war in 2014, shared insights on the governance issues and defence gaps standing in the country's path to victory.
Grant pointed to complacency and poor management at various levels of government as the most urgent challenges for Ukraine. "The biggest challenge is the failure of the government to take the war seriously on all levels," Grant stated. "There is too much smug complacency and PR instead of taking hard actions to remove the weak and unskilled and Russian-leaning individuals in many areas of public life, replacing them not with friends but with more capable people, whatever their political allegiance."
This criticism also extended to military leadership, where Grant emphasized the urgent need to prioritise leadership and management to increase Ukraine's chances of success on the battlefield.
Ukraine's problems — solving them is a difficult and long-term process
In the area of defence and the defence industry, Grant pointed out gaps in the equipment and training of frontline units. "There is still no coherence or understanding about the need to maintain a high level of basics like mortars, night sights, cars, and drones. There should not be a need for society to pick up the pieces for poor logistic systems." It is worth noting that many military units still primarily rely on volunteer collections to provide what is needed.
Grant also described the divided Ukrainian defence industry, noting that private companies are technologically advanced but underfunded and lack transparent long-term planning relationships with the government. Meanwhile, though partially reformed, government-funded entities still do not meet the country's defence needs.
It is worth noting that until today, many units still rely on volunteer support because the Ukrainian state cannot provide what is needed. There are also cases of faulty equipment deliveries, as demonstrated by 100,000 mortar shells.
Ukraine's capabilities — enormous potential
Asked whether Ukraine has the ability to defeat Russia, Grant responded emphatically: "Yes," however, his optimism was tempered by a warning of the need for greater responsibility and strategic action.
Grant emphasized that if international support were to cease, Ukraine would face a critical turning point. "Ukrainian society would double down and start to get serious about corruption and inefficiency, forcing the government to stop living on dreams and hype and make proper decisions. Unless there is an election to bring in people who want to win and govern honestly and not just make and steal money, this may not be a totally peaceful change."
Grant's assessment emphasizes the need for Ukraine to face its internal challenges, strengthen its defence capabilities, and promote effective leadership to ensure resilience in the face of ongoing aggression. His insights provide a clear call to action for Ukrainian leaders and society as the country seeks to survive and triumph over Russian forces.
Ukrainian innovations — despite problems, there are some "gems"
Ukraine is currently producing thousands of drones intended for frontline use and for conducting attacks deep inside Russia. Some of them, like Rubaka or Bóbr, are based on model parts purchased worldwide or modified light aircraft or Tu-141 Strizh drones.
More advanced drones with "Palyanytsia" turbojet engines are also being developed, conceptually closer to cruise missiles. Ukrainians have started producing ballistic missiles. There are new missiles, such as Grom-2, or older ones, like Tochka-U, ranging from 120 kilometres to 500 kilometres.
Another interesting system is the 2S22 Bogdana howitzer, the mass production of which started in April 2024, with a monthly output of 20 units. It is a simple system where a 155 mm calibre gun with a 52-calibre long barrel and a semi-automatic loading system is mounted on a truck with an armoured cabin.
The result is a straightforward system with a rate of fire of up to 6 rounds/minute and a range of up to 30 kilometres for the simplest DM121-type shells. This still provides an advantage over Russian 122 mm and 152 mm artillery, usually limited to a maximum of around 25 kilometres. On the other hand, rocket-assisted shells like M549A1 allow targets to be hit even at 60 kilometres.
Adding the ability to fire in the MRSI (Multiple Rounds Simultaneous Impact) mode creates a highly effective and affordable system that Ukraine needs as much as possible. Ukraine has too few modern pieces of equipment to offset Russia's numerical advantage.
