US poised to escalate sanctions as Russia tensions rise
In Washington, impatience is growing over the lack of progress in negotiations with Russia, and imposing sanctions on Moscow is just a matter of time, Glen Howard, president of the Saratoga Foundation think tank, said. He added that "hawks" are gaining influence in the White House, and a drastic economic move is being considered.
Russia was not included in the group of countries subjected to American tariffs, which has raised many suspicions regarding the thawing of relations between the two countries. According to Glen Howard, president of the Washington-based think tank Saratoga Foundation, Trump is increasingly irritated by Putin's stance, who is "playing for time" regarding the war in Ukraine.
The US is irritated by Russia. Tough sanctions are in play
Responding to claims from European politicians that the United States is pursuing closer ties with Russia at the expense of its NATO commitments, Howard dismissed these concerns, stating that the notion of the Alliance and the eastern flank weakening is unfounded. He also stressed that such judgments are premature.
The expert observed that the influence of the faction favouring a tougher stance toward Russia is becoming more pronounced within the White House. This group, often called the "hawks," includes figures such as National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. According to the expert, they had exercised patience until now, monitoring the progress of negotiations while remaining aware of President Donald Trump's interest in maintaining dialogue with Russia.
At the start of the week, US President Donald Trump intensified his criticism of Russia. On Monday, he expressed to reporters his disapproval of the intense Russian bombardments in Ukraine. A day earlier, on Sunday, March 30th, he warned that Russia could face additional economic sanctions if a ceasefire in Ukraine is not established and if responsibility for the failure is attributed to Moscow.
At this stage, diplomatic efforts are still underway, and Trump's approach involves presenting himself to the Russians as a neutral party seeking to end the conflict. He aims to convey that he does not take sides between Ukraine and Russia but, like many others, views the war as futile. Nonetheless, he cautioned that these negotiations have a limited timeframe, as highlighted by the head of the Washington-based think tank.
Is the US playing for cheap oil?
He believes Washington may have set a goal to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine by Easter. If the Russians cannot be convinced to end the war, in Howard's opinion, Washington will use tough economic sanctions and supply Ukraine with more weapons. For example, they will lift restrictions from the Joe Biden administration regarding the number of Ukrainian F-16 pilots trained in the US. The Russian "shadow fleet" in the Baltic, which bypasses sanctions to ensure the Kremlin's continuous export of Russian resources, will also be in the American crosshairs.
The goal of this administration is to lower the price per barrel of oil to below £34, because if such a drastic drop occurs, Russia will be forced to end the war in Ukraine. It is for this reason that Washington has made Saudi Arabia a key partner," Howard assessed.
As emphasised by the American expert, the Trump administration is also enforcing existing sanctions imposed on Russia by President Biden, which "were porous." He emphasised that since the Trump administration tightened current sanctions, India has stopped buying oil from Russia.
Howard also reminded that despite the Kremlin's demands during talks about a ceasefire in the Black Sea, the US did not lift sanctions imposed on certain Russian financial institutions, including the state agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank. He assured that Americans will not be "led by the nose," as evidenced by the promise to supply Ukraine with new Patriot systems following the Russian attack on a playground in Kryvyi Rih, which killed, among others, nine children.
According to the American expert, the United States conveyed the threat of severe sanctions to the Russians through Putin's envoy, Kirill Dmitriev. Howard noted that Dmitriev was expected to see firsthand the extent of America's economic power and observe how Trump employs tariffs as a tool against other countries. In his view, Dmitriev would be well aware of the implications of harsher sanctions, and Trump likely succeeded in presenting him with a stark and compelling scenario.
