Yellowstone's dormant giant: Scientists assess eruption risks
The effects of a Yellowstone supervolcano eruption could be dramatic for the United States and the entire globe. Scientists have decided to investigate the likelihood of an eruption of this dormant volcano. Is the awakening of the beast threatening us?
Mark Stelten, a geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey and deputy scientific director of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, sought to estimate the chances of awakening the supervolcano lying dormant beneath Yellowstone Park. As he admitted, forecasting is complex. It requires more than just considering past eruptions and their intervals.
We must combine these types of forecasts with real-time monitoring of the volcano to assess the state of the volcanic system, emphasised the scientist, as quoted by "Newsweek".
Currently, the annual probability of a Yellowstone volcano eruption is estimated to be about 0.001 per cent. According to the scientist, this value is "probably an overestimate for the short term." Scientists emphasise that there are currently no signs of an impending eruption because the magma system under Yellowstone is predominantly solid.
Stelten points out that although we can be relatively calm for now, it cannot be ruled out that this period of peace will eventually end and scientists need to be vigilant for signs of an impending eruption.
The consequences of the supervolcano eruption could be dramatic
If the Yellowstone supervolcano were to erupt, the effects of this event would be felt not only in America but would also have global repercussions. Regionally, ash would fall from the sky, and the global climate could suffer for years or even decades.
The surrounding states, including Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, must contend with pyroclastic flows—a dangerous mix of hot lava blocks, pumice, ash, and volcanic gas. While humanity would not be completely wiped out, extreme weather conditions and other effects could severely impact it.
Scientists predict that a single large eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano is unlikely. Multiple eruptions occurring at relatively short intervals are more probable.
