Explosion in Rylsk: Russian mishap or Ukrainian strike?
In Rylsk, a strong explosion resulted in the deaths of six Russians and numerous injuries. The Russians accuse the Ukrainians, but the truth may be different. Here's what might have occurred in Rylsk.
The Russians accuse the Ukrainians of shelling the Rylsk centre with an M142 HIMARS launcher with GMLRS rockets or MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles. However, photos and recordings from the site of the strike show a crater that is too large for a GMLRS rocket warhead or impossible to achieve with MGM-140 ATACMS missiles with a cluster warhead, as noted by Ukrainian expert Oleksandr Kovalenko in an article by the Unian agency.
He points out that the Russians most likely lost a FAB aircraft bomb weighing about 250 kilograms. This wouldn't be the first case, as several such bombs with UMPK modules have also fallen on Russian territory, including in Belgorod and surrounding areas.
FAB bombs with UMPK module
FAB bombs with UMPK (Unified Set of Planning and Correction Modules) currently represent the most effective Russian weapon against Ukraine. They are essentially a copy of JDAM-ER modules, which, after attaching an additional module to an old unguided, free-falling aircraft bomb, create a precision weapon with enormous destructive power.
Initially, the Russians used stockpiles from the USSR, but they have recently resumed production of new units. The technique involves adding to the bomb a section with guidance based on a combination of inertial and satellite navigation, stabilisers capable of flight path corrections, and deployable wings.
This results in a bomb capable of hitting a target with precision within a few or dozens of metres from 60 to 70 kilometres if released from a high altitude. The Russians use such bombs to attack targets, with the drop occurring deep within their country’s territory. This, combined with low-quality production, causes some bombs to be faulty and not land where they should. In the described case, it landed on Rylsk.
Dangerous and effective Russian weapons
Kovalenko estimates the crater to be from a 250-kilogram variant containing 100 kilograms of TNT. It's not the largest version, as the Russians also drop bombs weighing even 1,500 kilograms and 3,000 kilograms with much greater destructive power.
It is worth noting that even against the 250-kilogram variant, no field fortifications can offer protection, and a Su-34 aircraft can carry more at the same time than is the case for larger weights. The Russians attack Ukrainian positions detected by so-called "meat assaults" with these bombs.
Unfortunately, due to the shortage of medium-range air defence systems such as S-300, Patriot, or SAMP/T, they must continuously retreat to minimise losses. The Russians advance using this strategy, particularly in the Donetsk region.
