Georgia's EU hopes on hold: Protests erupt over delayed talks

On Thursday, Georgia's Prime Minister, Irakli Kobachidze, surprised everyone by announcing that Georgia would pause talks regarding EU membership until 2028. "We have decided to defer the opening negotiations with the EU until the end of 2028 and will refuse all EU budgetary grants until then," he remarked.

This unforeseen declaration has bewildered Georgians. The country applied for membership in 2022 and obtained candidate status a year later. That same evening, thousands took to the streets in the capital city of Tbilisi. Authorities used water cannons and tear gas to disperse the demonstrators. Dozens were detained, and an equal number were injured in the clashes.

"The Georgian Dream has scored an own goal. They didn't anticipate such a societal reaction. After the opposition's defeat in the elections, there was no appetite for protest. But yesterday, thousands gathered spontaneously, without any planning," comments Georgian political scientist Prof. Grigol Julukhidze, currently in Tbilisi. He predicts that future protests will be even larger.

The political scientist who followed the election campaign focuses on the deception by the Georgian Dream party towards voters. The ruling party's politicians did not previously mention withdrawing from pro-European aspirations.

"This topic was absent during the election campaign, which centred solely on advocating the need to avoid war with Russia. They claimed that a change of government would lead to war. To ordinary citizens, they appeared as a pro-Western party, not pro-Russian, but one capable of maintaining peace with Russia. There was no narrative about altering the pro-European political course," argues Grigol Julukhidze.

He adds that even today, government representatives claim this decision does not spell the end of Georgia's Eurointegration. "They say it's a strategic political decision to improve relations with the West. That's simply nonsense," he believes.

According to the Centre for Eastern Studies director, Wojciech Konończuk, "the Georgian government has forgotten why the revolution erupted in Ukraine."

Coincidentally, Saturday marks the 11th anniversary of the "Revolution of Dignity" in Ukraine, which ousted the pro-Russian and anti-European President Viktor Yanukovych. Is a scenario similar to Ukraine possible in Georgia as well?

"I wouldn't exclude that. We are experiencing a governmental error that may be very consequential for them," comments Dr Wojciech Konończuk.

He recalls that surveys showed approximately 80 per cent of citizens supported Georgia's integration with the European Union.

"We have a paradox where Georgians are predominantly pro-European, yet they vote for a party that was moderately Eurosceptic but still maintained a course towards Georgia's EU integration. But that was until yesterday," says Dr Konończuk.

The expert highlights that the Georgian government has managed relatively well so far considering the Western world's response to the election results, which were not entirely fair. There was some stiffening of positions, but neither the European Union nor the United States severed relations with Georgia.

"Now we have a completely new situation. The authorities have provoked society. We'll see how long the public has the energy. But I also see another analogy with Ukraine over a decade ago. Georgian society envisions the European Union as a path to a better future, offering a promise of a prosperous, European home that Georgia could join. Today, the Georgian Dream party obstructs this societal aspiration," points out Dr Wojciech Konończuk.

In the widespread view of commentators, Georgia's moves are intended to steer the country towards Russia. "This is an operation entirely orchestrated and overseen by Russia," Grigol Julukhidze states without hesitation.

What may be even more surprising is the prime minister's declaration regarding the renouncement of EU funds. Could Georgia have already secured support from Russia?

"Russia promises nothing. Remember, there are still no official diplomatic relations between Russia and Georgia. Relations, however, have warmed, and the tone of Kremlin media is very positive regarding the Georgian government. But the fact that Georgia forsook those EU funds is another spark that angered society. These were rather substantial sums for a still impoverished country like Georgia," says Wojciech Konończuk.

He believes the prime minister's decision reflects "misunderstood dignity politics."

"He indicated that after 2028, Georgia will integrate with the EU on its terms. And that's impossible because these aren't negotiations where both the EU and Georgia reciprocally concede. It effectively operates this way: either you accept the terms or aren't an EU member. The Georgian prime minister's framing of the issue clearly illustrates that there is no intention from the Georgian Dream authorities to steer Georgia towards Europe. Society says 'no' to this. What may emerge from this confrontation remains uncertain," says the Centre for Eastern Studies director.

According to Grigol Julukhidze, establishing normal diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia in the current situation is merely a matter of time.

"Now the government believes that relations with Brussels should be severed first, citing ludicrous reasons. I'm not joking; even the prime minister openly claims that there is a Global War Party responsible for orchestrating events like the attempts on Trump and the Slovak Prime Minister Fico, among others. They present such conspiracy theories. The parliamentary speaker mentioned a few days ago that Georgia's accession to the European Union would entail risk because we would have to withdraw visa-free travel with significant countries like Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and China. All that is happening now in Georgia is a theatre of the absurd," summarises Grigol Julukhidze.