Kremlin struggles to reclaim Kursk as Ukrainian forces dig in

Following an unexpected attack in August 2024, the Ukrainians seized an area of around 1,040 square kilometres, approximately the same amount captured by Russia in Ukraine the previous year. The attack was so unforeseen that the Kremlin was initially convinced the Ukrainian advance was merely a brief raid that would swiftly conclude.

As a result, the Russians missed the pivotal moment when the Ukrainians penetrated their territory, fortified their positions, and deployed artillery, which now plays a crucial role in the positional battles.

The gravity of the situation and the extent of Ukrainian actions became apparent to the Kremlin only after nearly two weeks, and only then did they respond systematically. By 19 August, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced the creation of three new Army Groups – Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk.

The new Groups are tasked with protecting the regions in which they operate, mainly focusing on defence against air strikes. The decree also mentions the protection of the population. Although nothing was explicitly mentioned regarding the defence of Russian Federation territory, it was the initial step to coordinate actions in the attacked regions. Today, the Kursk Army Group comprises 40,000-50,000 soldiers, including several thousand Koreans sent by Kim Jong Un.

The authorities in Moscow officially downplayed the loss of a large portion of Russian Federation territory. Kremlin propaganda attributed the defeat to a treacherous strike and commanders' mistakes. Local authorities were also blamed, but in reality, no one faced consequences.

Over time – and it's been more than 100 days since the attack on the region – it became increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to justify its image defeat. Even at the beginning of September, Vladimir Putin furiously demanded the expulsion of Ukrainians by the end of the month. The command was unprepared for such an operation at that time – still lacking soldiers and heavy equipment in the region. Nevertheless, on 11 September, an attack was launched. It ended after three days of fierce fighting, being shattered by the Ukrainians.

Only in the subsequent weeks were the Russians able to force the Ukrainians to retreat and level the front line. Within a month and a half, the Russians regained about 230 square kilometres in the section where the Ukrainians had not established adequate defensive positions. The most valuable Russian asset was the recapture of the village of Novoivanovka, quite significant from a logistics perspective. The town, located on the Rylsk-Korenovo–Sudzha route, is now used as a frontline base and a primary foothold for subsequent strikes.

The battles, however, were so exhausting that the Russians had to initiate an operational break and only resumed the next phase of operations on 6 November. The Kremlin hoped for better outcomes this time. Meanwhile, reorganised units had been transferred from other operational areas, along with a brigade of North Korean troops. After two weeks of fighting, the prospects for the Russians do not look promising.

In the first attack of the new wave in the Pogrebka-Orlovka-Nova Sorochyna area, a battle group of the 810th Guards Independent Marine Infantry Brigade lost ten out of 14 BTR-82 wheeled carriers, up to 30 killed, dozens wounded, and several taken prisoner. Russian official channels reported that in the same fight "the enemy lost up to 40 people killed and wounded, and four armoured fighting vehicles were destroyed."

Subsequent attacks also yielded little. The Ukrainians, due to the terrain conditions – a lack of large urbanised areas and forest expanses as well as open, flat spaces – favour manoeuvre defence, in which they are excellently trained. They have demonstrated this since the outset of the war, which is not the case for the Russians.

The latter, due to a low level of training, struggle with more complicated tactics. The primary reason is that Russian forces in the region consist largely of soldiers who have been serving for only a few months. Therefore, even a numerical superiority in a five-to-one ratio does not help the Russians.

The press unit of the 95th Independent Air Assault Brigade published a film on their Telegram channel summarising Russian attempts to break through near Orlovka.

"During two days of assault, the enemy achieved nothing but the destruction of their units and equipment. They lost 28 pieces of equipment and over 100 troops from the 810th Marine Brigade. About a hundred occupiers were seriously injured. Our paratroopers knocked out their desire to continue the attack. The enemy began to retreat, but not everyone managed to do so," they stated in the film's description.

For now, Russian military personnel are putting on a brave face. "This is a chance to destroy Ukrainian reserves, the Ukrainian army, and maintain pressure in this area, so Ukraine does not dispatch these reserves towards Donetsk, Kurakhovka, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and others," said Col. Res. Viktor Litovkin in an interview with Lenta.ru.

On the other hand, propaganda continues to stress that the Russian army is winning and destroying more Ukrainian units. In Kazan, Putin claimed that 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers were encircled in the Kursk region. He did not specify what kind or where.

According to Russian data, Ukrainians have irreversibly lost approximately 13,400 soldiers in the Kursk region. This would suggest that seven Ukrainian brigades have ceased to exist. This claim belongs to the realm of fantasy because it's two more brigades than those that struck in the region in August. Even if one were to believe these figures, the question remains unanswered – why, despite such enormous Ukrainian losses, has the territory not yet been recovered?

Furthermore, the Ukrainians are said to have lost 215 tanks, 141 infantry fighting vehicles, 116 armoured personnel carriers, 1,190 armoured combat vehicles, 968 trucks, 294 artillery guns, and 40 self-propelled rocket launchers, most of which were reportedly M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS. Yet again, it's futile to search for photos or videos confirming these successes.

Following further unsuccessful operations, Putin had to postpone the "ultimate" deadline for reclaiming the Kursk region. It is now set for 1 February 2025. Additionally, by 25 February, the Kremlin plans to establish a "buffer zone" on Ukrainian territory along the border.

The new dates are not random – in January, Donald Trump will already be in power in the USA. If he indeed advocates for an end to the war, likely one of the conditions would be freezing the conflict, with both sides retaining their current territorial gains. Putin aims to have the territories lost in the Kursk region returned to the Federation by this time. If he fails to achieve this, even his propaganda will find it difficult to defend.