NATO faces urgent task to bolster forces amid Russian threat
The Russian aggression in Ukraine has prompted NATO, which is committed to defending every part of its territory, to ensure it has sufficiently large armed forces. This task presents significant challenges. An analysis by the Alliance points to a shortfall of at least 49 brigades, equivalent to a quarter of a million soldiers.
NATO countries must bolster their military capabilities, requiring substantial financial resources. Expanding the land component by up to 50 per cent is essential. These findings come from an unpublished NATO document, which Welt has accessed.
The two main tasks for the new NATO Secretary General, who, from 1st October 2024, will be the Dutchman Mark Rutte, emphasise Russia as a focal point. The first task is to ensure Ukraine has the necessary support to repel Russian aggression. The second is to safeguard NATO itself against Russia.
As Welt highlights, the new head of the Alliance’s message is: "there is no excuse," based on a new, albeit unpublished, analysis prepared by American General Christopher Cavoli and French Admiral Pierre Vandier, two key military commanders of the Alliance.
MCR - minimum capability requirements for NATO
This requirement arises from a significant declaration made in 2023, stating that NATO must be "ready, willing, and able" to defend every inch of allied territory. To ensure these words translate into action, a considerable financial and organisational effort is necessary.
The scale is defined by "minimum capability requirements" (MCR). In 2021, forces equivalent to 82 brigades were deemed adequate. The bar has now been significantly raised. MCR sets it at 131 brigades, leading to the conclusion that NATO must increase its armed forces by 49 brigades to fulfil its commitments.
The NATO publication estimates each brigade at around 5,000 soldiers, which is close to the upper limit (a brigade's strength is usually estimated at 3,000-5,000 soldiers).
Therefore, the 32 current NATO members must expand their armed forces by 245,000 soldiers. According to the Ukrainian service Defence Express, this requirement, in terms of soldiers serving in the ground forces, is equivalent to four German armies (approximately 64,000 soldiers), two French armies (114,000), or half of the US Army (453,000 soldiers in ground forces).
The expansion is not just a matter of funding and equipment delivery schedules but also time. New units need to be formed, equipped, supported, trained, and coordinated. Official, and therefore optimistic, projections place the timeframe for a new division at 8 years (for example, the formation of the 18th Division is planned for 2018-2026).
NATO must expand air defence
Beyond troop numbers, the NATO analysis underscores a second key weakness of the Alliance: air defence. Its inadequacy is clear from the numbers—NATO's capability must rise from the current 293 ground units to a desired 1,467.
This involves weapons of various classes, from close-range defence systems like the German Skyranger, which has proven effective in Ukraine, to medium—and long-range systems like the American Patriot. NATO also stresses the need to expand its helicopter forces.
