North Korea strengthens Russia with artillery and missiles by 2025

Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, stated that in 2025, North Korea will give Russia military support similar to what was provided in 2024. As he detailed, in 2024, Pyongyang supplied Moscow with about 120 M1989 "Koksan" artillery systems with a calibre of 170 mm and 120 multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) M-1991 with a calibre of 240 mm, as well as nearly 150 KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles. According to Budanov, these numbers are expected to be similar in 2025.

The head of Ukrainian intelligence also noted that he does not expect to see many new ground forces. However, he did not specify the number of North Korean soldiers who may arrive in Ukraine, nor did he mention when this might happen. Instead, Budanov reminded us that so far, about one-third of the 12,000 Koreans sent to Kursk have died, meaning practically about 8,000 people are still capable of continuing the fight. Such estimates are difficult to verify.

The New York Times, citing an anonymous high-ranking US defence official, recently reported that new reinforcements from North Korea might appear in Kursk "within the next two months". Analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) share a similar view. In their latest report, they note that in the coming months, North Korea will deploy a new military contingent in Russia, likely allowing for maintaining the current pace and intensity of infantry attacks in the Kursk region.

Interestingly, ISW also believes that "the entirety of the North Korean contingent in Russia may be killed or wounded in action by about mid-April 2025 at their current casualty rate, and a new North Korean deployment — whether intended to increase the current grouping or rotate out existing forces — is likely intended to sustain Russia’s tempo of operations despite heavy losses of about 30,000 - 45,000 causalities (combined killed and wounded) per month".

According to ISW analysts, the new North Korean forces deployed in Russia are unlikely to impact Russian operations significantly. They will probably face the same high casualty rates and complications in cooperating with Russian forces as the current North Korean contingent. "Provided the Russian command continues to use North Korean forces the same way as it has thus far," ISW notes.

North Korea has supplied Russia with the aforementioned M1989 "Koksan" artillery systems, M1991 rocket systems, and KN-23 ballistic missiles. The M1989 "Koksan" is a North Korean self-propelled gun calibre of 170 mm, designed in the 1980s in response to the growing need for long-range artillery capable of targeting strategic locations, including the South Korean capital, Seoul. The range of the "Koksan" howitzer, mounted on a tracked chassis, varies from 39 to even 59 km, depending on the ammunition used. In conversation with The War Zone, Budanov acknowledged: "The 170 mm artillery has powerful ammunition and good capabilities."

The M1991 rocket systems are still somewhat mysterious, with multiple rocket launchers. Experts suspect they are a development of Soviet rocket technologies, such as the BM-30 Smerch. The range of rockets fired from the M1991 can be up to 200 km, allowing for strikes on strategic targets deep within enemy territory. Thanks to mobile platforms based on wheeled vehicles, the M1991 can quickly change positions, complicating counteractions by enemy forces. Regarding this weapon, Budanov commented that "240 mm MLRS are like any other heavy system. They cause more problems on the front lines."

KN-23 ballistic missiles are among North Korea's newest missile arsenal elements. First publicly unveiled in 2019, they quickly attracted attention from military analysts worldwide due to their similarity to the Russian Iskander missile systems. The KN-23 is a tactical short-range ballistic missile characterised by flight manoeuvrability and a low trajectory, making it difficult for missile defence systems to intercept. Depending on the version, the missile can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads and is based on mobile launchers.