Russian advances in Kursk challenge Ukrainian leverage

The Russians have penetrated areas held by Ukrainians in the Kursk region. Consequently, Putin's troops have recaptured at least three villages. The withdrawal of Ukrainian forces signifies a reduction in leverage for potential peace negotiations with Moscow, according to "The New York Times."

"Overall, the situation in the Kursk region (Russia) is not favourable," assessed military analysts from the Ukrainian war mapping project Deepstate, as quoted by the American newspaper. In their opinion, Ukrainian forces are "undertaking stabilisation actions, but reclaiming the lost ground is exceedingly difficult."

According to military analyst Emil Kastehelmi from the Finnish group Black Bird Group, some Russian units have "managed to penetrate relatively deeply into positions located behind the Ukrainian army." Experts report that Ukraine currently controls about 780 square kilometres of Russian territory. This represents a loss of roughly 25 per cent of the territory compared to the situation in August when the Ukrainian military launched an offensive in the Kursk region.

"The New York Times" noted that this offensive had two main objectives: "to compel the Kremlin to redeploy troops from other front sections to counter the attack, thereby alleviating pressure on Ukrainian forces, and to capture territory that Moscow would wish to reclaim, potentially forcing it to negotiate."

Last week, the Washington think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that the increase in Russian attacks in the Kursk region is linked to the forthcoming change in weather, which will hinder the use of heavy equipment.

Ukraine will be able to maintain its positions for "a few months or even longer," because Russian forces face logistical challenges and disorganisation within their command structure, said a senior U.S. military official, speaking to "NYT" in early October on the condition of anonymity.

"Ukraine may hope to use the territory it controls in the Kursk region as leverage in potential peace negotiations to exchange for territories occupied by Russia in Ukraine. However, Moscow has not indicated a willingness to engage in talks as long as it holds an advantage on the battlefield," it stated.