Russian fleet retreats as Syrian rebels capture key cities
Russia began evacuating ships from the naval base in Tartus, Syria, following the rapid advance of Islamist rebels in Syria, reports Naval News. Meanwhile, Ukrainian intelligence reports that regime forces and Russian military units are "suffering significant losses, fleeing positions and abandoning weapons and equipment, and their retreat is chaotic."
According to sources, on the morning of 2nd December, the tanker "Jelnia"—crucial for maintaining Russian forces in the Mediterranean Sea—left Tartus. Along with it, other units may have left the base. The Russian naval group in Syria currently comprises five ships and one submarine. It includes two "Admiral Gorshkov" class frigates, an "Admiral Grigorovich" class frigate, a modernised "Kilo" class submarine, and two auxiliary ships.
Panic and chaos after the rebel attack
"There is a real likelihood that the withdrawal is related to the deteriorating situation in Syria," wrote analyst James Droxford. After the withdrawal of Russian ships, the naval base in Tartus may be abandoned, and the ships are likely to be relocated to the Baltic Sea, Naval News speculates. On the way, they may stop in Algeria or Libya.
However, if Russia decides to maintain the base in Tartus, it will have to send significant reinforcements, but their relocation will take weeks.
The naval base in Tartus, located on Syria's Mediterranean coast, is a strategic asset for Russia. The Soviet Navy was stationed there from 1971, but after the fall of the Soviet Union, the ships were withdrawn. Russian troops returned to Tartus in 2012, when Moscow decided to intervene in the Syrian civil war on the side of President Assad. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia bolstered its forces in Tartus to counter the presence of NATO aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean Sea.
Intelligence: Fleeing positions. Chaotic retreat
On Tuesday, Ukrainian intelligence in the latest release emphasised that according to its information, the personnel of the Russian military contingent in Syria "is in a state of depression." "Government forces and military units of the aggressor country are suffering significant losses, fleeing positions and abandoning weapons and equipment, and their retreat is chaotic," it reads.
According to intelligence, planned rotations of Russian troops in Syria have been suspended, and Arabic-Russian translators are being urgently sent to the city of Hama, where fighting is ongoing—likely for the needs of officers of the Russian Armed Forces, who are trying to discipline Bashar al-Assad's troops.
It was decided to send mercenaries from so-called "private military companies" to assist in Syria.
Unexpected rebel attack on Assad's regime
At the end of November, thousands of Syrian rebels led by the "Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS) group, which originates from Al-Qaeda, launched an offensive from Idlib province. Within a few days, they reached Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo, and took its centre. The rebels also advanced towards Hama, another large city south of Aleppo, capturing dozens of other localities along the way.
The rebels released a video of their leader, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, announcing that his fighters "will not rest until they reach the heart of Damascus"—Syria's capital. In response, Assad called on his allies—Russia and Iran—who are, however, engaged in their own armed conflicts: with Ukraine and Israel.
The Syrian army denied the rebels' successes, announcing that it was redeploying forces and preparing to launch a counterattack with the help of Russian fighter jets. Following that, Russian airstrikes hit the city of Idlib and HTS positions in the provinces of Aleppo and Hama.
On 1st December, it was announced that Russia changed the commander of its military group in Syria. After Aleppo was seized by opposition forces, Lieutenant General Sergei Kiselyov lost his position. He was replaced by Colonel General Alexander Chaiko, who had previously led an unsuccessful attempt to capture Kyiv—reported pro-Russian bloggers.
