Turkey advances domestic upgrade of F‑16 fleet amid US talks

Turkey is one of the largest users of F-16s worldwide – it currently operates 234 of these aircraft, most produced under licence in Turkish factories. Since Turkey was excluded from the F-35 programme in 2019, the Turkish Air Force, which primarily uses F-16s but also operates ageing F-4 Phantoms, has faced a significant issue with an ageing fleet of combat aircraft.

The solution to this challenge was meant to be the purchase of additional F-16s in the latest F-16C/D Block 70/72 variant from the USA and the modernisation of 79 of the existing aircraft to this standard (newly manufactured aircraft are Block 70/72, while the upgraded ones are F-16V).

The total cost of the modernisation programme was expected to reach £15 billion. However, despite the U.S. Department of State's approval in January 2024 for both the purchase of new aircraft and the modernisation of older ones, Ankara decided to seek another solution.

Turkey still intends to buy new F-16s but wants its own industry to modernise its aircraft. It is the only country in the world with this capability, outside the United States and Israel.

This results from Turkey possessing the source codes for the F-16C/D Block 30 variant, which were compelled to be transferred from the USA to Turkey in 2011. Since then, Turkey has independently upgraded not only its own aircraft but also offers this service to foreign clients, with Pakistan among those who have taken advantage of it.

The modernisation of Turkish F-16s will be based on the upgrade programme Özgür (Turkish for Freedom) developed by TAI (TUSAŞ) and includes a comprehensive replacement of avionics – most likely including the radar – with domestic industry products.

Notably, their offerings include, among others, the modern AESA Murad radar, intended for Turkey's fifth-generation fighter TAI Kaan and combat drones. In February 2024, Turks conducted the first flight of an F-16 equipped with this radar.

In the context of Turkey's actions, the Polish modernisation programme for the F-16 is worth mentioning – Polish aircraft will be updated, but this will be done by the American industry, which will cost Polish taxpayers up to £5.6 billion (the final price will probably be lower).

Simultaneously, Turkey resumed efforts to acquire the F-35. Although Ankara partly financed the development of this aircraft and intended to purchase at least 100 units, it was excluded from purchases. This occurred as a result of Turkey ordering Russian S-400 anti-aircraft systems, which not only violated alliance agreements but also raised concerns about the possibility of Russians acquiring too much information about the F-35.

Currently, six years after the exclusion decision, Turkey has resumed efforts to acquire the F-35. A negotiating argument is the possibility of Ankara ordering several dozen Eurofighter aircraft.

During negotiations, a proposal was reportedly made - detailing as reported by the Konflikty service - to place S-400 in the American Incirlik base, located in Turkey. Regardless of these efforts, Turkey is working on its own future-oriented fifth-generation aircraft named TUI Kaan.

This does not change the fact that Turkey, allocating £12-16 billion annually to defence for years, comparable to and currently less than Poland, has managed to build its own defence sector with impressive capabilities. They achieved this through their own R&D efforts and through technology transfer provided with licensed production of various weapon models.

The effects of these efforts are starting to show – Turkey, initially a weapon importer dependent on foreign technologies, is gradually rearming its military with equipment over which it has control over production, modernisation, and sometimes also export.

The backbone of the Turkish armed forces remains hundreds of units of older, foreign equipment – tanks from the M60 family, Leopard 1 and older variants of Leopard 2, M110 howitzers, and thousands of M113 transporters.

The replacement process, however, is underway, and the Turkish industry is offering increasingly modern equipment. Its list—particularly in the context of the capabilities of other individual NATO countries—is impressive.

Turkey produces its own Altay main battle tanks (developed in cooperation with South Korea), T-155 Fırtına howitzers (also a result of cooperation with Korea), or light wheeled howitzers ARPAN-155, several models of multiple-launch rocket systems (some developed in cooperation with China), and ballistic missiles – both tactical (Bora system) and short (Tayfun) and medium-range (Cenk).

The Turkish industry also produces helicopters, drones of various sizes and purposes, and is working on the fifth-generation TUI Kaan aircraft and its own aircraft weapons, such as the Bozdoğan and Gökdoğan air-to-air missiles introduced into service in 2024.

Turkish shipyards are also building modern submarines of the Reis type (a licensed variant of the German Type 214) and surface vessels. Until recently, these were licensed versions of German (MEKO) and American (modified Oliver Hazard Perry type) units, but in 2024, the first of eight ordered type Istif frigates designed from scratch in Turkey and armed with Turkish Atmaca anti-ship missiles entered service.

This is the result of an ambitious MILGEM programme, started back in 2004. Under this programme, Turkey also builds its own corvettes and patrol ships (also for export to Pakistan, Ukraine, and Malaysia) and will soon start work on missile destroyers (eight ordered TF-2000 type units).

The first landing ship, TGC Anadolu (built in collaboration with Spain), was also built in a Turkish shipyard and entered service in 2023. It features a flight deck for helicopters and large drones.