Ukraine faces mobilization dilemma amid rising war losses
Experts from the Ukrainian General Staff have warned in the media that the current pace of mobilisation does not cover the losses incurred at the front. This is one of the arguments for lowering the age of those subject to mobilisation to 18 years. The country was thrown into turmoil when US officials presented President Zelensky with this dramatic choice.
Parents of 17-year-olds are taking them out of Ukraine in advance, so that once they reach adulthood, they won't be affected by a ban on leaving the country, and potentially mobilisation in the future. According to BBC Ukraine, this dramatic step is the result of discussions around mobilising people aged 18-25 for war. Previously, mobilisation affected citizens over the age of 25, but this may change. The Ukrainian army lacks recruits, and the pace of mobilisation does not cover the losses at the front.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, is under pressure from the US administration expecting the Ukrainian army to reach for the youngest reserves by mobilising men aged 18-25. Experts warn, however, that the generation numbering about 2.5 million people (1.3 million men) must be saved, which is crucial for the potential of the state.
- The Ukrainian nation may disappear in 180 years if the demographic situation does not change - warned Dr Olga Bohomolec, a well-known Ukrainian doctor and expert. She warned of the consequences of war losses, emigration, and unfavourable demographic trends. - The lands of Ukraine will remain, someone will sow grain on them, but they will no longer be Ukrainians - states Bohomolec, as quoted by the Unian agency.
Ukraine needs 400,000-500,000 soldiers
President Zelensky does not agree with the Americans' proposals. - What we have made clear is that if they produce additional forces to join the fight, we and our allies will be ready to equip those forces and train those forces to enter battle - announced US State Department spokesperson, Matthew Miller, recently. He emphasised that the proposal is related to conclusions after jointly discussing the situation at the front in the eastern part of the country. For the past three months, the Russians have been gaining new territories there.
- Zelensky's actions are incomprehensible. He neither wants nor can accept the conditions presented by Putin, yet he has no idea how to help his exhausted army. Someone has to operate the weapons. They need 400,000-500,000 people to create units that will replace fighting soldiers in a few months - assessed a Polish military expert.
Gen. Skrzypczak believes that due to exhaustion from battles and losses, Ukrainian forces are retreating at the front in the eastern part of the country. The Russians are conducting battles, cutting off defenders near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Ultimately, the Kremlin aims to capture the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
- Both sides are extremely exhausted by the conflict and cannot afford to carry out decisive operations. Russia will have new forces after the autumn draft and will certainly deploy them - summed up a former military officer.
War in Ukraine. A lost generation
The discussion around drafting the youngest reservists has been met with mixed reactions in Ukraine. - We don't have enough people who are young. Some say that we will have a lost generation because they will go to war. If they don't want to go to war, they are already a lost generation. We raised those who do not want to defend their homeland - expressed dissatisfaction by Col. Roman Kostenko of the SBU military intelligence, secretary of the National Security, Defence, and Intelligence Committee.
He believes the mobilisation age in Ukraine should start at 20 years. He noted that in many countries, mobilisation from the age of 18 or 20 is common practice, and the fact that it's different in Ukraine surprises American congressmen.
Controversial Ukrainian deputy Mariana Bezuhla revealed in November that the army's personnel shortages are so great that the most valuable specialists are being sent to the trenches as infantry. She described that this way, anti-aircraft units were weakened, allowing more Russian drones to strike cities.
State of war and surprising signal from the Kremlin
Military experts estimate that during the winter of 2024/25, the Kremlin will want to conclude several major battles. They will seal territorial gains before the administration of Donald Trump takes power and before expected negotiations begin.
Between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians gained over 1,600 square kilometres in eastern Ukraine. With an estimated casualty rate of 1,500 per day (killed and wounded), October was the bloodiest month of the war for Russia - estimate Russian independent media Verstka and The Insider.
According to the authors, the number of killed ranges from 115,000 to 160,000, which is more than 10 times the death toll of the Soviet war in Afghanistan. The total number of Russian casualties, including the wounded, is estimated at around 800,000 people.
Meanwhile, a surprising voice came from the Kremlin on 10 December. - Russia has practically fulfilled the "special operation" missions in Ukraine set before the invasion by President Vladimir Putin. (...) The strategic initiative in all areas belongs to us, we are close to achieving our goals - said the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin in an interview. According to him, the United States and the United Kingdom expected to impose on Russia a long-lasting war of attrition.
Despite Naryshkin's boasts, the statement was interpreted on Telegram as a signal that the Kremlin is willing to end the conflict. The goals of the "special operation" do not exist. They will be exactly what Putin deems necessary to declare victory when he decides to end the war - summarised by the Russian authors of the research project System.
