Ukraine's missile ambitions: Balancing power with Russia by 2025

In 2025, Ukraine plans significant advancements in missile production, including ballistic missiles. Mikhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network platform, emphasises in an interview with the Unian portal that the serial production of Ukrainian operational-tactical ballistic missiles will be crucial.

Samus notes that by the end of 2024, Ukraine had made progress in several areas, including the production of new cruise missiles. He recalls that in 2024, Ukraine significantly increased its production of drones, which has now become commonplace.

"We need to produce thousands of missiles to not only match Russia but also to surpass it in missile attacks on key targets, mainly military but also economic," he remarks. The expert believes that Ukraine will achieve sufficient serial production of ballistic missiles, positioning itself as a leader in Europe.

The Ukrainian industry was a major supplier of ballistic missiles during the USSR era, and that expertise has been retained. Until recently, Ukrainian capabilities were restricted by the Missile Technology Control Regime, which limited the range to 310 miles.

Currently, Ukraine is capable of designing and producing missiles with ranges of up to 1,243 miles, posing a challenge to Russia. Samus highlights that the Russian S-400 system struggles to intercept such targets. "If we manage to overcome technological and financial barriers, we will create a serial medium-range ballistic missile. For Russia, this means the necessity to end the war, as Ukraine will be able to target assets as far as the Ural Mountains."

President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that in 2025, Ukraine will expand war production, aiming to produce at least 30,000 long-range drones and 3,000 cruise and drone missiles, including new "Neptune" missiles. In 2024, Ukraine surpassed the production of the first 100 units.

Since 2014, Ukrainians have been intensively working on replacing Soviet-era Tochka-U systems. The result was a system known as Grom/Grom-2, with the first launch occurring in 2018, and tests were anticipated to be completed in 2024.

Before the full-scale war erupted, Ukraine had built a prototype battery of the Grom-2 system, consisting of two launchers and command vehicles. This battery was reportedly used to strike the Russian military airbase Saky in Crimea in 2022, long before they gained access to MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles from the USA.

It appears that Ukrainians have completed the development phase, and in 2025, a dozen or possibly several dozen ballistic missiles may enter their arsenal, allowing Ukraine to deploy them independently of the USA. Despite appearances, even such a small number can significantly impact military operations.

Details regarding the Grom and Grom-2 missiles remain confidential, but earlier information suggested developing an export version for Saudi Arabia. It was expected to form a ballistic missile with a 1,058-pound warhead and a maximum range of 186 miles, compliant with Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) restrictions.

For its own needs, not limited by MTCR, Ukrainians likely aimed to create a missile with a range of about 310 miles, similar to the Russian Iskanders-M. The guidance system is also likely based on a combination of inertial and satellite navigation, similar to foreign competing systems.

Although this solution could be susceptible to GPS signal interference, a missile designed with a 1,102-pound warhead in both fragmentation-explosive and cluster variants possesses such a high destructive force that even a small deviation from the target would not be an issue.

Grom-2 missiles could be a crucial asset for destroying Russian airbases situated around 310 miles from the front line. The effectiveness of ballistic missiles stems from their flight speed of up to Mach 7 (5,370 mph), allowing them to reach the target in just a few minutes.

This provides no time for evacuating the threatened facility compared to swarms of drones, which travel at just over 75 mph. In such cases, Russians had up to an hour to react, from detection to impact. Ballistic missiles reduce this time to a minimum, and defence against them is very difficult and costly. Consider that even Israel, with the best anti-ballistic defence in the world, failed to intercept all Iranian ballistic missiles.