Ukrainian drones strike Kazan nitrocellulose factory, a military blow

After attacks on Russia's oil industry, Ukrainians persist with strikes using drones on different sectors of Russian industry. Following assaults on distilleries and chemical plants producing explosives in Tula, it was the nitrocellulose factory in Kazan's turn, located roughly 1,000 kilometres from the Ukrainian border.

Several buildings were hit, but the extent of the damage remains unclear. This suggests, however, that after months of a drone attack campaign, Russians still struggle to secure all critical facilities in their deep rear. They are forced to decide between leaving such facilities unprotected or withdrawing some equipment along with personnel from the front lines.

In the case of the facility in Kazan, at least one Pantsir-S1 system was active, as indicated by the presence of burned-out boosters from the two-stage 57E6 missiles in the vicinity. However, this was insufficient, and at least several drones from the "Beaver" family, UJ-22 "Airborne," or "Rubaka" managed to penetrate the defences.

Nitrocellulose is the principal component of most gunpowders used in ammunition production. Nitrocellulose can be the main component of gunpowder (known as single-base) or just one of several components (multi-base gunpowder). Without gunpowder, there is no ammunition for any rifled weapon, as it is through its combustion in a precisely defined manner that pressure is generated to propel a projectile out of the barrel of a rifle, automatic cannon, tank, or howitzer.

Although composite powders based, for example, on hexogen have been developed in recent years, nitrocellulose remains essential for many manufacturers. Furthermore, production is very challenging because even the smallest changes in the composition of the gunpowder can render the ammunition ineffective or even deadly for the operators.

For instance, too weak a gunpowder will result in a lower muzzle velocity for the fired projectile, which in artillery will lead to too short a range. Conversely, too strong a charge can cause the barrel or, for example, the gun's breech to burst.

It's also worth noting that the Russians currently cover 60 percent of their ammunition needs with supplies from North Korea, as local production capabilities are inadequate. While it might be feasible to temporarily boost the production of cast shell casings or bombs, doing so for explosives or gunpowder is far more challenging.

For this reason, any successful strike on such centres will significantly impact production capabilities. Moreover, Russians must assign units to guard such centres, which could otherwise be deployed in Ukraine.