Boeing bets on the F‑47: Resurgence amid turmoil

NGAD, or Next-Generation Air Dominance, is the American program for building the fighter aircraft of the future. Classified as a 6th-generation fighter, this aircraft is expected to provide the Pentagon with air superiority similar to that of the F-22 Raptor. The F-22 was revolutionary, and despite its age, it still surpasses the latest aircraft of potential adversaries.

The NGAD program doesn't just involve constructing a specific aircraft model but also establishing the entire ecosystem in which the future aircraft will operate. This ecosystem includes, among other things, drones that support it in combat. Part of the NGAD program is also the F/A-XX program, which aims to develop a new carrier-capable aircraft. Although different from the air superiority fighter, it will share various solutions and components with it.

Until recently, the future of the NGAD program was uncertain due to its predicted high costs, estimated at up to $300 million. For comparison, the current version of the F-35 costs about $87 million (with the unit price gradually decreasing as production scales up), and the latest version of the F-15, the F-15EX, costs about $97 million.

While the Donald Trump administration had limited the defense budget and sought significant savings, the future of the NGAD program now seems secure. In one of his speeches, President Trump announced the construction of a new combat aircraft, presenting its name as the F-47, and commented that it's a wonderful number (Donald Trump is the 47th president of the USA).

The president also indicated that Boeing would be responsible for building the new fighter. Currently, after decades of consolidation in the American defense sector, Boeing is one of the three major aircraft manufacturers in the United States. Military orders in the U.S. are divided so that each aviation corporation produces at least one type of modern combat aircraft.

Northrop Grumman is developing the future stealthy strategic bomber B-21 Raider. The Defense Department plans to order at least 100 units, with production expected to conclude in the mid-2030s.

Lockheed Martin, which has produced 195 serial F-22 Raptors (with production ending in 2012), is currently manufacturing the F-35. It's predicted that, for the Pentagon alone, at least 2,456 units (in three variants) will be built, completing production in 2044. This is in addition to foreign orders, which could bring total F-35 production up to 5,000 units.

The future of Boeing as a combat aircraft manufacturer was uncertain until recently. Although the corporation is producing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets for carriers, the last order will be completed by the end of 2027. Without foreign orders, this could mean the closure of the production line.

Boeing is also responsible for producing the latest variant of the F-15, the F-15EX Eagle II, but the Pentagon has reduced the planned 200 units to only 104 aircraft. Foreign orders from Israel and Saudi Arabia improve the situation slightly, although Saudi Arabia is not purchasing new machines but upgrading existing aircraft to the latest standard.

These foreign orders might slightly exceed 100 units. In this context, lobbying, to acquire this type of machine is not surprising.

Therefore, the decision to assign Boeing the production of the F-47 is very important. Even with a limited number of orders, current estimates suggest that the entire program, including service throughout the equipment's life cycle, could mean orders amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars.

All of this is happening as Boeing faces several issues that have undermined its credibility. The period when Boeing had a near-monopoly position in the large passenger jet market has ended with the rise of European competitor Airbus.

The response to European competition was supposed to be new Boeing models such as the 787 Dreamliner and the next incarnation of the 737 model, the Boeing 737 MAX. Both models, despite excellent sales, encountered serious problems, damaging the company's reputation with scandals related to quality control, cost-cutting during design and execution stages, or solutions that negatively impacted flight safety.

Boeing's aircraft suffered incidents involving overheating batteries, doors falling off during flights, windows popping out, engine cowl pieces falling off, and debris found in fuel tanks. Additionally, the system intended to protect the aircraft from stalls (a sudden loss of lift that may be accompanied by a loss of control) caused tragic disasters.

As a result, Boeing's sales hits were grounded by the American FAA and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which closed European airspace to the 737 MAX model. Problems also affected LOT airlines, which operates Boeing jets.

The damage to Boeing’s reputation was compounded by whistleblower statements from former employees reporting irregularities. John Barnett (who died by suicide in 2024) exposed the neglect of defects and the deliberate installation of defective parts.

Another whistleblower, Sam Salehpour, added to Boeing's list of offenses with claims of neglect in the production of Dreamliners and the 777 model, and skipping safety procedures during assembly.

The issues in the civilian sector were compounded by setbacks in space exploration. Boeing, which contributed to the Apollo program years ago, failed in developing the Starliner spacecraft.

The new-generation space vehicle, which was supposed to be ready for flights as early as 2015 according to the company's declarations, eventually took its test flight in 2019. When the Starliner finally flew to the International Space Station with a crew, returning the spacecraft to Earth with people proved impossible due to numerous technical failures. The Starliner returned to Earth without a crew.

Although the return went without issues, the astronauts intended to spend a week in space ended up trapped in orbit for over six months. They finally returned to Earth in March 2025 instead of August 2024.

All these problems underscore the significant trust the American administration has placed in Boeing by entrusting it with building a combat aircraft designed to ensure U.S. air supremacy for decades to come.

This decision is notable since, while the Starliner spacecraft has a counterpart in the SpaceX-developed Crew Dragon capsule, the Pentagon does not have the same luxury when it comes to combat aircraft. Failure or delays in the construction of the F-47 could mean that American military aviation remains without a new air superiority fighter, reliant on a small fleet of aging Raptors and the non-prospective F-15s developed in the 1970s.

Also awaiting resolution is the matter of the F/A-XX program. Although it is part of the NGAD program, it is ultimately intended to develop a carrier-capable aircraft for the Navy. Lockheed Martin has been excluded from the competition, meaning the future carrier aircraft, which is to replace the Super Hornets, will be produced by either Northrop Grumman or Boeing.