CDU/CSU maintains lead but faces shrinking support in polls

According to the most recent poll by the public television network ARD "Deutschlandtrend," the Christian Democratic parties CDU and CSU can rely on 31 percent of voters, a decrease of two percentage points compared to the mid-December poll. Despite this, CDU/CSU remains clearly in the lead. In second place is the right-wing populist AfD with 20 percent, while the Social Democrats (SPD) are in third with 15 percent (in both cases, an increase of one percentage point).

The Greens follow them at an unchanged 14 percent, while the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) remains at 5 percent.

The liberal FDP and the "Left Party" each gained one point: both would reach four percent, but still would not surpass the electoral threshold. All other parties combined would capture seven percent (a decrease of two percentage points).

Six weeks before the elections, 37 percent of respondents consider refugees and immigration to be the most important issue. This is an increase of 14 percentage points compared to December 2024. Just behind is the state of the economy, at 34 percent (a decrease of eleven percentage points). The following topics ranked next: war and peace (14 percent, down by four), environment and climate (13 percent, up by one), and social injustices (unchanged at 11 percent).

The public opinion research institute Infratest Dimap conducted a survey among 1,323 eligible voters between January 6 and 8, 2025.