Ceasefire in Ukraine: Not peace, but a strategic pause

• Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire. During talks in Jeddah, Kyiv accepted the proposal to halt military actions along the front line. "We want to do everything possible to achieve it as soon as possible – securely and in a way that ensures war does not return," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

• The U.S. President announced that the American delegation will negotiate the ceasefire terms with Moscow on Tuesday or Wednesday at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. "It takes two for tango, as I have already said, so I hope he (Putin) will also agree as well," said Donald Trump, adding that he plans to speak directly with the Russian leader this week.

• Washington declared continued support for Kyiv, and Trump wanted to meet with Zelensky at the White House.

Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political scientist and director of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies in Kyiv, that the recent negotiations exceeded previous expectations and benefited both sides.

"The results of Tuesday's meeting exceeded the most optimistic expectations. Both sides came out successful. The most significant for Ukraine is the declaration of unblocking arms supplies and access to intelligence data. Although it is only a declaration at this stage, we should understand that the last word belongs to Donald Trump. So, let's wait for concrete actions," the expert notes.

According to Fesenko, the meeting in Saudi Arabia helped return Ukraine-U.S. relations to the "right track," which he believes the official position issued after the talks confirms.

"It's worth noting that the statement does not only concern the partial ceasefire as initially assumed (it was supposed to cover air and water), but the entire combat operations on the front. Contrary to the accusations, Ukraine demonstrated with these talks that it wants peace and a ceasefire. And this is in line with Donald Trump's demands," emphasizes the political scientist.

The expert points out that the American administration was particularly keen on a positive outcome of the negotiations, and President Trump on strengthening his political image.

"Trump needed a success that he can add to his list of achievements. Not for nothing, the White House has just published a list of 50 successes Trump achieved during his 50 days in office," says Fesenko.

The expert indicates that the further development of the situation depends on the Kremlin—Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized after the talks that the decision on the ceasefire is in Russia's hands.

"Now, as the Secretary of State said, the ball is in Russia's court. I am not sure if they will agree to a 30-day ceasefire. The Kremlin consistently insists that peace negotiations must first take place and then an agreement signed. Without these—as Lavrov and Putin have already declared—there can be no ceasefire," the political scientist notes.

The expert indicates that the United States intends to exert greater pressure on Russia in the coming days, and the resumption of military assistance to Ukraine is one of the ways to apply pressure to the Kremlin.

"Talks with Russia are clearly not going as smoothly as the U.S. would like. There is currently no information about a meeting between Trump and Putin, just as after the meeting of the U.S. and Russian delegations in Istanbul, there's no visible continuation," assesses Fesenko.

He also emphasizes that the joint position of the United States and Ukraine sends a clear signal to Moscow—if Russia does not decide to negotiate, Washington will only continue talks with Kyiv.

"Trump wants quick peace, and if Russia begins dragging the negotiation process and making further demands on Ukraine, he may change his mind and favour," the expert warns.

Fesenko believes Moscow will not agree to a ceasefire without additional concessions. "I don't think Russia will immediately agree to a ceasefire. They will likely make additional demands, like the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region. Now the ball is in the opponent's court," he says.

The expert notes that the Kremlin faces a difficult choice—whether to continue their aggressive policy towards Ukraine or focus on long-term relations with the U.S. and come to the table for talks.

"Russia now faces a dilemma. It can continue to blackmail Trump, refuse any ceasefire, and try to demand Ukraine's full capitulation. Or maintain the possibility of having strategic interests with the USA," says the political scientist.

He recalls that Russia, under sanctions, lacks the technological capability to exploit Arctic deposits independently, so it may try to reach an agreement with Trump—specifically regarding joint projects in that region. "The USA for Russia means modern technology, money, and in the long term, an improvement in its position," summarizes Fesenko.

According to Mykhailo Samuś, a military expert from the Ukrainian Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies in Kyiv, the results of the talks were predictable. In a conversation with Wirtualna Polska, he emphasizes that Ukraine repeatedly declared readiness for a ceasefire, but the United States has avoided such a solution until now, trying to work out other political mechanisms.

Samuś warns that a ceasefire does not mean the conflict's end, just its temporary freezing. "If ultimately there is a ceasefire, it will not mean the end of the war, just its temporary freezing. For both sides, it is a tactical pause that they will use to strengthen and expand their potential," he argues and warns simultaneously.

He emphasizes that on the front, this decision may be received positively, as the fatigue from the war is enormous, and soldiers are fighting in very challenging conditions.

"The truth is that everyone is tired. The combat operations have reached a dead-end phase, as Valerii Zaluzhnyi (former commander-in-chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, currently Ukraine's ambassador to the UK) mentioned back in 2023. Now, neither Russia nor Ukraine has enough forces to push forward. There are fights along the entire front line, but neither side is achieving significant success. The ceasefire will lead to the end of the killing of our soldiers. We have losses, and this greatly impacts society," the expert assesses.

The expert notes that the only possible areas for talks with Russia may now be humanitarian and technical issues. "The only topics we can discuss with Russia are the return of Ukrainian children and prisoners and agreeing on technical aspects, like the demarcation line along which there will be a demilitarized zone and monitoring of the ceasefire adherence," he adds.

Samuś believes that peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will eventually result in the resumption of hostilities—thus, the U.S. will be more interested in maintaining the ceasefire regime.

"The ceasefire is not peace; it is suspension and postponement. Russia has not achieved its main goals, which are not occupying all of Donbas and not destroying the Ukrainian nation. Sooner or later, it will try to continue this war, just as Ukraine will want to regain territories," he assesses.

In his opinion, a potential lack of agreement from Putin on Trump's demands could force the American president to introduce massive military aid to Ukraine. "Putin may disagree with Trump's demands, and then the U.S. president will announce a lend-lease for Ukraine. But Trump does not want this, as he hopes that he may separate Russia from China," the expert concludes.

This refers to a unique military support program, similar to that during World War II, when the United States provided equipment to allies without immediate payment. It would mean that Ukraine could receive weapons and ammunition on a large scale, without typical budgetary or political constraints.