China faces third year of decline as population crisis deepens
China's population has decreased for the third consecutive year. In 2024, the number of deaths exceeded births by 1.39 million. Rapid urbanization, rising costs of living, and gender inequalities are deepening the demographic crisis, and Chinese authorities are implementing programs to increase birth rates.
According to data from China's statistical bureau, China's population decreased by 1.39 million people in 2024, and the current population stands at 1.408 billion. This marks the third consecutive year in which the number of deaths has exceeded the number of births. Despite a slight increase in the birth rate, experts warn that the rate of population decline may accelerate in the coming years.
Economic impacts of the population decline
The declining population presents a significant challenge for the Chinese economy. A decreasing number of working-age people means shrinking labour resources, and an aging society generates rising healthcare costs and burdens the pension system.
In 2024, 9.54 million children were born, while 10.93 million died. The article states that the birth rate increased from 6.39 to 6.77 per 1,000 residents, but this is still insufficient to address the demographic crisis.
The decline in births in China results from decades of the one-child policy (1980–2015) and rapid urbanization. Living in cities, where child care and education costs are higher than rural areas, effectively discourages young people from starting families. In 2024, the urban population increased by 10.83 million, while in rural areas, it decreased by 3.2 million.
The reluctance of young Chinese to start families is also exacerbated by economic difficulties, rising costs of living, and an uncertain job market. Another issue is gender discrimination and social expectations that women should primarily be responsible for raising children.
Professor Yun Zhou from the University of Michigan cautions that reversing the declining trend is unlikely without significant structural reforms, including advancements in the social safety net and gender equality.
Chinese authorities are taking steps to increase fertility. In 2024, classes promoting a positive image of marriage and parenthood were introduced, and efforts were made to encourage marriages at a younger age. Nevertheless, the number of women of reproductive age is expected to decrease by over two-thirds by the end of the century, posing a significant challenge to the pension system, which, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences, may become insolvent by 2035.
