German intelligence warns of Russian military escalation
" Sueddeutsche Zeitung " reports that a new analysis by the German military and intelligence reveals that Russia is gearing up for potential conflict with the West.
Representatives of the German Bundeswehr are increasingly cautioning about Russia's threat to European peace. "The reason for the shift in military tone is a new evaluation by the German intelligence service BND," claims the newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung, citing its own journalists' discoveries and public broadcasters WDR and NDR.
According to the newspaper, the analysis was completed just a few weeks ago and is currently being made rounds in Berlin among security officials. "Apparently, the Bundeswehr and intelligence services do not want to be caught off guard again, like in the winter of 2021-2022, when the BND didn't foresee an attack despite the massive deployment of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border," writes SZ.
The war in Ukraine does not weaken Russian forces
Furthermore, analysts paint a "grim picture" of Moscow's plans in the latest report. "Russia believes it is in a systemic conflict with the West and is prepared to pursue its imperialist ambitions using military force—even beyond Ukraine. Although currently there is no indication of an ‘imminent confrontation between Russia and NATO,’ the document states that Russia is likely to meet all conditions for a ‘large-scale conventional war’ by the end of the decade. The war in Ukraine, ongoing for over three years, has not weakened Russian forces," it notes.
According to the German intelligence service analysts, Moscow is not willing to compromise and is capable of continuing the war into this year.
"Despite sanctions, Russia can prepare militarily to a degree where it will soon be able to attack a NATO state. The Kremlin could not only compensate for the high personnel and material losses in Ukraine but could even continue its armament. According to the analysis, the war-oriented economy produces more than is needed for military actions in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has also ordered an increase in the armed forces to 1.5 million soldiers by 2026," reports SZ.
Baltic states exposed to attack
The authors of the analysis also address the situation in the Baltic region.
"About three-quarters of the Russian military personnel and equipment from regions bordering the Baltic States are currently engaged in Ukraine. However, the Russian air force and navy remain fully operational in the region. Therefore, the current threat of a Russian invasion of the Baltic States should be considered relatively low. However, if the war in Ukraine were to end, as the report states, Russian units would likely be redeployed to this region," it states.
The Russian economy continues to produce weapons at full capacity, so even after the end of the fighting in Ukraine, the equipment lost there will be quickly replaced. "Russian soldiers will return, and barracks and arsenals will be fully restocked. Moscow could then focus its forces directly on a NATO country," it continues.
"Sueddeutsche Zeitung" recalls that the head of the German Federal Intelligence Service, Bruno Kahl, warned in November last year that his agency sees a real danger of a Russian attack on a NATO state within just a few years. According to Kahl, high-ranking military officers in Moscow doubt that others will fulfill the mutual assistance obligation in the event of an attack on a member of the Alliance. This increases the risk that Russia will test this scenario through a limited attack, for example, in the Baltic States.
Read also:
