Hong Kong cardinal as pope: A diplomatic dilemma for China
The election of a cardinal from Hong Kong as pope could pose a political challenge for China, where the number of Catholics is growing rapidly. How would the communist government react to such a situation?
What you need to know
- The conclave will begin on May 7th, and one of the favourites is Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle.
- The Church in China: China does not have its own cardinal-electors, except for the cardinal from Hong Kong.
- China-Vatican relations: In 2018, an agreement was adopted on joint nomination of bishops in China.
Pope Francis passed away on April 21st, 2025, which according to canon law means that the conclave must begin no earlier than 15 days after his death. The cardinal-electors will gather in the Sistine Chapel on May 7th, 2025, to choose a new pope. One of the favourites in the race for the papal throne is 67-year-old Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle.
Among the so-called cardinal-electors, the clergy from whom the pope is chosen, 53 are from Europe, and 23 from Asia. We explain why there is no representative from China among the cardinal-electors, the situation of the Catholic Church in this country and how the current communist government would react to the election of a pope from Hong Kong.
Potential election of a pope from China
The Catholic Church in China is developing quickly, even though the country does not have its own cardinal-electors. The exception is Cardinal Stephen Chow from Hong Kong, who represents the Special Administrative Region of the PRC. In China, there is the so-called Official Church, which does not recognize the authority of the Vatican, and the so-called Illegal Underground Church.
Relations between China and the Vatican were cold for centuries, but in recent years they have improved. In 2018, a temporary agreement was reached on the joint nomination of bishops. Pope Francis pardoned bishops appointed by the PSKCh who joined ordinations without the consent of the Holy See, highlighting his policy of dialogue with Beijing.
When asked how the Chinese government would react to the election of a cardinal from Hong Kong as pope, we can answer that it would be a very difficult scenario for them, as it would face an unprecedented situation. Although it could represent a milestone in relations with the Vatican, for Beijing, the election of a pope is more a political matter than a spiritual one. The key issue is whether the future pope would support the PRC's policies and stance on the international stage.
If it were convenient for the Chinese government, they might consider him a Chinese candidate; this would undoubtedly be a milestone in relations with the Vatican. At the same time, it should be remembered that for the Chinese government, the election of a pope is more of a political issue than a spiritual one. Of greater importance than recognizing or not recognizing the 'Hong Kong cardinal' are currently the issues of Taiwan, which the Vatican recognizes as a sovereign state, as well as China's relations with the USA. The nationality of the future pope takes a backseat because the key issue is whether he would support the PRC's policies and stance on the international stage.
