Moscow's Victory Parade under drone threat: May 9 tensions rise
This year's Victory Parade in Moscow may proceed tumultuously. While Putin threatens to use the Orieshnik, Ukrainians are painting messages on drones. Here's what might be headed towards Moscow on May 9.
Russia attempted to secure a three-day ceasefire to conduct the Victory Parade on Red Square. However, it seems that this may not materialize, and in retaliation for multiple attacks on their cities, Ukrainians might launch an attack on Moscow using a swarm of drones.
Some drones might get through despite being easy targets for air defence. It's important to note that even the best air defence system is ineffective if more targets than missiles are available in the launcher. Another challenge is detecting low-flying objects, as ground-based radars have a limited range of about 40 kilometres due to the radar horizon.
What Ukrainians might use to attack Moscow
The Ukrainians have developed a variety of long-range drones and systems resembling cruise missiles, or even fully-fledged cruise missiles. The first category includes drones like "Bóbr," UJ-22 "Airborne," or "Rubaka." These are simple constructions with an internal combustion engine and a wingspan of approximately 3 metres or more, with a typical range of 500 kilometres or more.
Their takeoff weight is several dozen kilograms, with a few to several kilograms dedicated to explosives. The remainder accommodates fuel, an engine—usually with a push propeller—and simple electronics.
When encountering jammers, the drone is guided based on inertial (INS) and satellite (GPS) navigation, often with reduced accuracy. They are inexpensive to produce but are slow, flying at slightly over 100 kilometres per hour, so the target can potentially be evacuated. However, the Russians must shoot them down, which doesn't occur without collateral damage.
Turbojet drones and cruise missiles
The situation looks better with "Palyanytsya" drones equipped with turbojet engines, which are much faster and leave the Russians less time to respond. There are also fully-fledged cruise missiles like "Long Neptune" with a range of up to 1,000 kilometres, equipped with active radar seekers to find and hit a target even under severe jamming conditions during the final phase of flight. Such an extensive range allows for creatively plotting flight paths, for instance, to approach Moscow from the east.
It is presumed that in retaliation for missile and drone attacks on their cities, Ukrainians may attack Moscow with a mix of these weapons on May 9, 2025. It's worth noting that even the threat alone will impact the capabilities of Russian forces, as many air defence systems may be drawn to Moscow at the expense of units fighting in Ukraine.
