Naples in peril: Expert warns of impending supervolcano eruption

The Naples region in Italy is regularly affected by earthquakes. Beneath the surface lies a massive supervolcano spanning an area of about 200 square kilometres. Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo, a volcanologist from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), cautions that the volcano could erupt at any moment, without warning.

Campi Flegrei, known as the Phlegraean Fields, differs from other well-studied volcanoes like Etna. It can surprise us, even during calm periods, without bradyseismic activity or deformation. We don’t know the scale or the precise location where an eruption source will open, emphasizes Mastrolorenzo, quoted by "Bild".

The expert adds that currently, the volcano is rising by about 2.5 centimetres per month, which has already made the entrance to the port of Pozzuoli too shallow for boats.

Though authorities have prepared a mass evacuation plan, experts assure that an eruption is not imminent. However, Mastrolorenzo has a different opinion: We cannot predict the eruption of a supervolcano because no one has experienced it before. The system is too complex to be predictable. We can try to forecast if we are close to an eruption, but we must be ready for the worst, said the expert.

He added that recent earthquakes, including a 4.4 magnitude one from last week, might be harbingers of an eruption. The evacuation plan involves moving half a million people within 72 hours, which Mastrolorenzo considers a "very optimistic hypothesis".

If an eruption were to occur, the disaster for the region would be enormous. The energy released during the eruption could be ten times greater than the event that destroyed Pompeii in 79 A.D. The volcano has been emitting increasing amounts of carbon dioxide for years, recently 5,500 tonnes per day. The emission of hydrogen sulfide, particularly in the Solfatara crater, has increased fivefold. The supereruption is long overdue, concluded Mastrolorenzo.